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Chapadao vs Ivinhema

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
48' Event

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-3, with Ivinhema advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Chapadao
30%
Draws
29%
Ivinhema
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chapadao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chapadao come out ahead of Ivinhema on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Chapadao have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Ivinhema, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Chapadao Clean Sheet 16%
Ivinhema Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapadao Ivinhema
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 13 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.43 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.49
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Chapadao
2:4
Mar 26, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Chapadao vs Ivinhema
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapadao 30 / 100
Ivinhema 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapadao Ivinhema

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chapadao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ivinhema's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Chapadao's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Chapadao went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Ivinhema
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chapadao

(Home)
02 Apr
Ivinhema
2 : 4
Chapadao
26 Mar
Chapadao
0 : 3
Ivinhema
12 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Chapadao
05 Mar
Chapadao
1 : 1
Coxim
03 Mar
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Chapadao
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Ivinhema

(Away)
12 Jul
ASA
4 : 0
Ivinhema
06 Jul
Ivinhema
1 : 2
ASA
29 Jun
Democrata GV
1 : 1
Ivinhema
21 Jun
Ivinhema
3 : 1
Democrata GV
14 Jun
CRAC
1 : 1
Ivinhema
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Novoperario 3
Operario MS 4
Coxim 0
Dourados 8
Chapadao 4
Ivinhema 5
Aquidauanense 1
Costa Rica 2
Semi-finals
Operario MS 2
Dourados 1
Ivinhema 1
Costa Rica 1
Final
Operario MS 1
Costa Rica 1