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Charleroi vs Leuven

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Souanga C.
46'
Sub
Nzita M. In: Gaudin J.
Out: Nzita M.
48' Event
Scheidler A.
Assist: Ousou A.

AI Match Summary

The Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 game between Charleroi and Leuven finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Charleroi
30%
Draws
34%
Leuven
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Charleroi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Charleroi come out ahead of Leuven on wins alone.
  • Model gives Charleroi a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Charleroi Clean Sheet 12%
Leuven Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charleroi Leuven
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.38 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
1:1
Apr 25, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Charleroi
0:2
Mar 14, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
0:2
Jul 27, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Leuven vs Charleroi
2:2
May 24, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Charleroi vs Leuven
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Charleroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Scheidler A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Leuven Compare

Top Goalscorer Souanga C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charleroi 35 / 100
Leuven 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charleroi Leuven

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Charleroi scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Leuven has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Charleroi went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Charleroi VS Leuven
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Charleroi

(Home)
25 Jul
Charleroi
2 : 1
RFC Seraing
25 Jul
Lens
2 : 2
Charleroi
17 Jul
Feyenoord
3 : 1
Charleroi
11 Jul
Charleroi
2 : 2
Reims
23 May
St. Liege
0 : 2
Charleroi
Page 1 of 6

Leuven

(Away)
25 Jul
Heerenveen
4 : 4
Leuven
24 Jul
Club Brugge U23
3 : 0
Leuven
18 Jul
Leuven
1 : 0
Lierse SK
15 Jul
Leuven
5 : 1
Lommel SK
11 Jul
Olympiacos Piraeus
1 : 1
Leuven
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
7Genk1045111:638
8St. Liege1052317:1137
9Charleroi1052312:834
10Westerlo1041514:1733
11Antwerp1041512:1631
12Leuven101369:1723
Promotion - Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)