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Charleston vs FC Tulsa

USA USA

USL Championship Patriots Point Soccer Complex
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This USL Championship encounter between Charleston and FC Tulsa promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Charleston averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in recent matches. FC Tulsa shows a form average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 4 wins for Charleston, 1 wins for FC Tulsa, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 13.06.26 ended in a 5:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 2.06 for Charleston and 1.00 for FC Tulsa, suggesting the primary value lies in the Charleston double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Charleston
15%
Draws
40%
FC Tulsa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Charleston

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Charleston picked up more points recently compared to FC Tulsa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Charleston Clean Sheet 23%
FC Tulsa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Charleston FC Tulsa
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 14 14
Draws 3 6
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.81 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.37 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25
Possession % N/A N/A
Shots per Match N/A N/A
Shots on Target N/A N/A
Corners per Match N/A N/A
Yellow/Red Cards N/A N/A

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

13.06.26 USL Championship
Charleston vs FC Tulsa
5:1
20.04.24 USL Championship
FC Tulsa vs Charleston
1:4
23.09.23 USL Championship
Charleston vs FC Tulsa
2:1
15.04.23 USL Championship
FC Tulsa vs Charleston
1:2
26.06.22 USL Championship
FC Tulsa vs Charleston
2:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Charleston

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

FC Tulsa

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Charleston Compare

Top Goalscorer Swan C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Foster M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

FC Tulsa Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabral R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Charleston 45 / 100
FC Tulsa 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Charleston FC Tulsa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Charleston or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Charleston 50%
FC Tulsa 32%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Charleston 43%
FC Tulsa 42%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Charleston 45%
FC Tulsa 40%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Charleston 47%
FC Tulsa 38%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Charleston 41%
FC Tulsa 44%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Charleston 52%
FC Tulsa 46%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Charleston attacking → ← attacking FC Tulsa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Charleston have found the net in 78% of their last 27 matches.

FC Tulsa have conceded at least one goal in 54% of their last 28 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 4.00 goals per match.

Charleston remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.

FC Tulsa suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

History Log Unavailable

Historical prediction accuracy logs and success dashboards require a live connection to a completed tips outcome database. This section is currently flagged as: Needs a Real Data Source.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 48
2.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25
N/A Ball possession % N/A
N/A Shots per game N/A
N/A Shots on target N/A
N/A Corners per game N/A
N/A Cards per game N/A

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tampa Bay1594224:1231
2Charleston1582530:2126
3Detroit City1473421:1424
4Louisville City1573525:2224
5Indy Eleven1263318:1221
6Pittsburgh Riverhounds1362515:1520
7Hartford Athletic1346310:1118
8Miami FC1445517:2317
9Rhode Island1244422:1616
10Birmingham Legion1427515:1813
11Brooklyn FC1433815:2412
12Loudoun United1418517:2811
13Sporting Jax15041119:414
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Orange County SC1576223:1627
2San Antonio FC1567220:1725
3New Mexico1363415:1421
4Oakland Roots1556424:2221
5Colorado Springs1454524:2219
6El Paso Locomotive1454525:2419
7FC Tulsa1354417:1619
8Lexington1353521:1618
9Phoenix Rising1545620:2217
10Sacramento Republic1244413:1216
11Las Vegas Lights1443721:2515
12Monterey Bay1543814:2215