Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chateauroux vs Concarneau

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade Gaston Petit, Châteauroux
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Wade P.
16' Event
Soukouna Y.
Assist: Baldoni S.
18'
Mopila S.

AI Match Summary

The National 2025/2026 game between Chateauroux and Concarneau finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chateauroux.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Chateauroux
30%
Draws
39%
Concarneau
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Concarneau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Concarneau come out ahead of Chateauroux on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Concarneau's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular National 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Chateauroux Clean Sheet 21%
Concarneau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chateauroux Concarneau
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 5 8
Draws 9 12
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.96 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.56 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2026 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Concarneau
3:1
Oct 21, 2025 Ligue 3
Concarneau vs Chateauroux
0:0
Mar 7, 2025 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Concarneau
1:0
Oct 4, 2024 Ligue 3
Concarneau vs Chateauroux
3:1
Mar 10, 2023 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Concarneau
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chateauroux Compare

Top Goalscorer Wade P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mupemba N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Concarneau Compare

Top Goalscorer Soukouna Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chateauroux 24 / 100
Concarneau 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chateauroux Concarneau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Concarneau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Concarneau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Chateauroux remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Chateauroux found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (27 games).

Scoring Trends

Chateauroux VS Concarneau
0.75 Goals Scored 1.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chateauroux

(Home)
22 Aug
Hauts Lyonnais
0 : 0
Chateauroux
01 Aug
Chateauroux
0 : 1
Bourges
15 May
Valenciennes
2 : 2
Chateauroux
09 May
Chateauroux
2 : 1
Sochaux
30 Apr
Dijon
1 : 2
Chateauroux
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Concarneau

(Away)
20 Aug
Concarneau
2 : 0
Villefranche
14 Aug
Quevilly
1 : 1
Concarneau
07 Aug
Concarneau
0 : 2
Orleans
31 Jul
Concarneau
5 : 1
Pontivy
25 Jul
Laval
1 : 2
Concarneau
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 52:25 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 51:26 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 43:29 55
4 Fleury-Merogis 32 15 9 8 47:30 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 46:34 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 42:42 51
7 Le Puy-en-Velay 32 12 11 9 45:38 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 39:34 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 32:37 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 35:44 37
11 Aubagne FC 32 9 10 13 38:46 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 34:45 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 34:45 33
14 Paris 13 Atletico 32 7 11 14 26:41 32
15 Bourg Peronnas 32 8 7 17 25:44 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 35:49 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 35:50 27
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)