Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chateauroux vs Fleury-Merogis

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade Gaston Petit, Châteauroux
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Hervieu L.
Assist: Farade K.
13'
Goncalves A.
44'
Karamoko H.

AI Match Summary

Fleury-Merogis in this National 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fleury-Merogis.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Chateauroux
35%
Draws
41%
Fleury-Merogis
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Fleury-Merogis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Fleury-Merogis have won more games recently than Chateauroux.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Chateauroux Clean Sheet 20%
Fleury-Merogis Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chateauroux Fleury-Merogis
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 5 11
Draws 9 6
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Fleury-Merogis
0:2
Dec 5, 2025 Ligue 3
Fleury-Merogis vs Chateauroux
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chateauroux Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Fleury-Merogis Compare

Top Goalscorer Hervieu L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rivas J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chateauroux 32 / 100
Fleury-Merogis 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chateauroux Fleury-Merogis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fleury-Merogis Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fleury-Merogis let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Solid form: Chateauroux remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Chateauroux scored in 56% of their last 27 games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Chateauroux VS Fleury-Merogis
0.38 Goals Scored 0.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chateauroux

(Home)
05 Sept
Touraine
1 : 1
Chateauroux
28 Aug
Chateauroux
0 : 1
Hyeres
22 Aug
Hauts Lyonnais
0 : 0
Chateauroux
01 Aug
Chateauroux
0 : 1
Bourges
15 May
Valenciennes
2 : 2
Chateauroux
Page 1 of 6

Fleury-Merogis

(Away)
05 Sept
Fleury-Merogis
6 : 1
Villefranche
29 Aug
Quevilly
2 : 1
Fleury-Merogis
20 Aug
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 2
Orleans
14 Aug
Cannes
1 : 1
Fleury-Merogis
07 Aug
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 0
Amiens SC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 52:25 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 51:26 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 43:29 55
4 Fleury-Merogis 32 15 9 8 47:30 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 46:34 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 42:42 51
7 Le Puy-en-Velay 32 12 11 9 45:38 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 39:34 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 32:37 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 35:44 37
11 Aubagne FC 32 9 10 13 38:46 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 34:45 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 34:45 33
14 Paris 13 Atletico 32 7 11 14 26:41 32
15 Bourg Peronnas 32 8 7 17 25:44 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 35:49 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 35:50 27
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)