Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chateauroux vs Villefranche

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade Gaston Petit, Châteauroux
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Beneddine M.
19'
Diarra D.
32'
Etoga L.

AI Match Summary

The National 2025/2026 game between Chateauroux and Villefranche finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Villefranche.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Chateauroux
30%
Draws
47%
Villefranche
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Villefranche

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Villefranche come out ahead of Chateauroux on wins alone.
  • Model gives Chateauroux a 23% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Chateauroux Clean Sheet 68%
Villefranche Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chateauroux Villefranche
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 8
Draws 9 6
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.03 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Villefranche
0:1
Oct 3, 2025 Ligue 3
Villefranche vs Chateauroux
2:1
Apr 4, 2025 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Villefranche
2:2
Nov 8, 2024 Ligue 3
Villefranche vs Chateauroux
2:2
May 3, 2024 Ligue 3
Chateauroux vs Villefranche
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chateauroux 68 / 100
Villefranche 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chateauroux Villefranche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chateauroux Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Villefranche let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Villefranche registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Chateauroux found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Chateauroux VS Villefranche
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.63
38% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Chateauroux

(Home)
11 Sept
Chateauroux
0 : 1
Limonest
05 Sept
Touraine
1 : 1
Chateauroux
28 Aug
Chateauroux
0 : 1
Hyeres
22 Aug
Hauts Lyonnais
0 : 0
Chateauroux
01 Aug
Chateauroux
0 : 1
Bourges
Page 1 of 6

Villefranche

(Away)
12 Sept
Villefranche
0 : 0
La Roche Vendee
05 Sept
Fleury-Merogis
6 : 1
Villefranche
29 Aug
Villefranche
0 : 2
Rouen
20 Aug
Concarneau
2 : 0
Villefranche
14 Aug
Villefranche
2 : 0
Paris 13 Atletico
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dijon 32 18 11 3 52:25 65
2 Sochaux 32 16 10 6 51:26 58
3 Rouen 32 14 13 5 43:29 55
4 Fleury-Merogis 32 15 9 8 47:30 54
5 Versailles 32 15 8 9 46:34 53
6 Orleans 32 14 9 9 42:42 51
7 Le Puy-en-Velay 32 12 11 9 45:38 47
8 Caen 32 8 16 8 39:34 40
9 Concarneau 32 8 14 10 32:37 38
10 Valenciennes 32 10 8 14 35:44 37
11 Aubagne FC 32 9 10 13 38:46 37
12 Villefranche 32 10 7 15 34:45 37
13 Quevilly 32 8 9 15 34:45 33
14 Paris 13 Atletico 32 7 11 14 26:41 32
15 Bourg Peronnas 32 8 7 17 25:44 31
16 Chateauroux 32 6 13 13 35:49 30
17 Stade Briochin 32 5 12 15 35:50 27
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)