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Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise

USA USA

USL League One CHI Memorial Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Bentley M.
Assist: Ayimbila J.
37' Event
Cence M.
Assist: Roed S.
45' Event
Adewole T.
Assist: Bentley M.

AI Match Summary

Chattanooga Red Wolves in this USL League One matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chattanooga Red Wolves.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Chattanooga Red Wolves
6%
Draws
4%
Sarasota Paradise
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Chattanooga Red Wolves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Chattanooga Red Wolves at 1.75 per game, Sarasota Paradise at 1.25.
  • Model gives Chattanooga Red Wolves a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Chattanooga Red Wolves Clean Sheet 68%
Sarasota Paradise Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chattanooga Red Wolves Sarasota Paradise
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 4 3
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 USL League One
Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chattanooga Red Wolves Compare

Top Goalscorer Bentley M.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Adewole T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Sarasota Paradise Compare

Top Goalscorer Cence M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chattanooga Red Wolves 95 / 100
Sarasota Paradise 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chattanooga Red Wolves Sarasota Paradise

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Chattanooga Red Wolves scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Sarasota Paradise let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Chattanooga Red Wolves remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chattanooga Red Wolves VS Sarasota Paradise
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Union Omaha16101525:1831
2Charlotte Independence1493234:1830
3One Knoxville1493226:1230
4AV Alta FC1667323:1825
5Athletic Club Boise1673623:2324
6Fort Wayne1466220:1224
7Forward Madison1372422:1423
8Spokane Velocity1572617:2123
9Portland Hearts of Pine1555524:2420
10Chattanooga Red Wolves1261522:1519
11Sarasota Paradise18531017:2818
12Corpus Christi FC1646620:2618
13FC Naples17521018:2717
14Westchester SC1542923:2314
15Greenville Triumph1342714:2114
16Richmond Kickers1433812:2412
17New York Cosmos14311017:3310