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Chavdar Etropole vs Balkan Botevgrad - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chavdar Etropole host Balkan Botevgrad in the Third League - South-West. This has Balkan Botevgrad written all over it on paper. Recent numbers: Chavdar Etropole at 0.43 goals for, 2.75 against; Balkan Botevgrad at 1.43 for, 1.17 against. Past meetings favor Chavdar Etropole slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 9, 2024, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 1.56) point toward Balkan Botevgrad. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Chavdar Etropole
15%
Draws
46%
Balkan Botevgrad
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Balkan Botevgrad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Balkan Botevgrad lately — more wins on the board than Chavdar Etropole.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Chavdar Etropole Clean Sheet 15%
Balkan Botevgrad Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chavdar Etropole Balkan Botevgrad
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 3 13
Draws 1 7
Losses 24 10
Goals Scored 0.43 1.43
Goals Conceded 2.75 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2024 Third League - South-West
Balkan Botevgrad vs Chavdar Etropole
3:0
Aug 26, 2023 Third League - South-West
Chavdar Etropole vs Balkan Botevgrad
2:0
Dec 1, 2022 Third League - South-West
Balkan Botevgrad vs Chavdar Etropole
3:2
Sep 10, 2022 Third League - South-West
Chavdar Etropole vs Balkan Botevgrad
3:1
Apr 16, 2022 Third League - South-West
Balkan Botevgrad vs Chavdar Etropole
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chavdar Etropole 35 / 100
Balkan Botevgrad 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chavdar Etropole Balkan Botevgrad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Balkan Botevgrad Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Balkan Botevgrad's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Chavdar Etropole's goal record stands at 29% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Chavdar Etropole has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Chavdar Etropole VS Balkan Botevgrad
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 38%
88% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chavdar Etropole

(Home)
03 Oct
Chavdar Etropole
2 : 1
Slivnishki Geroy
26 Sept
Septemvri Sofia 2
0 : 1
Chavdar Etropole
19 Sept
Chavdar Etropole
1 : 3
Levski Sofia II
12 Sept
Slavia Sofia 2
4 : 0
Chavdar Etropole
05 Sept
Chavdar Etropole
1 : 4
Botev Ihtiman
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Balkan Botevgrad

(Away)
07 Oct
Belasitsa Petrich
1 : 2
Balkan Botevgrad
03 Oct
Balkan Botevgrad
0 : 3
Fratria
26 Sept
Kostinbrod
0 : 1
Balkan Botevgrad
19 Sept
Balkan Botevgrad
2 : 2
Slivnishki Geroy
12 Sept
Septemvri Sofia 2
2 : 0
Balkan Botevgrad
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