Sport Picks
Chavdar Troyan vs Kariana Erden - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Bulgaria
Bulgarian Cup 2020/2021 
Match Events
4'
4'
Tsekov Dimitrov V.
16'
16'
Casarotto M.
48'
48'
Mendes J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-4, with Kariana Erden advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chavdar Troyan
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Kariana Erden haven't matched Chavdar Troyan's recent run of results.
- Model gives Chavdar Troyan a 85% chance of winning this.
- Chavdar Troyan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Kariana Erden, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Chavdar Troyan Clean Sheet 20%
Kariana Erden Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chavdar Troyan | Kariana Erden |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 26 |
| Wins | 7 | 6 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 16 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.77 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.83 | 2.12 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.78 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 30, 2020 Bulgarian Cup
Chavdar Troyan vs Kariana Erden
0:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chavdar Troyan Compare
Avg xG / game 1.37
Avg xA / game 0.89
Kariana Erden Compare
Top Goalscorer Tsekov Dimitrov V.
1 Goals Assists Leader Casarotto M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.97
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chavdar Troyan 85 / 100
Kariana Erden 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chavdar Troyan Kariana Erden
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chavdar Troyan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kariana Erden's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 26 matches.
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Away concern: Kariana Erden has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.
Chavdar Troyan's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Chavdar Troyan VS Kariana Erden
0.57 Goals Scored 0
1.14 Goals Conceded 3
43% Over 1.5 100%
29% Over 2.5 100%
29% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Chavdar Troyan
(Home) 04 Oct
Chavdar Troyan
0 : 4 Marek
26 Sept
Bdin Vidin
3 : 1 Chavdar Troyan
19 Sept
Chavdar Troyan
1 : 0 Sevlievo
05 Sept
OFK Levski
0 : 0 Chavdar Troyan
29 Aug
Chavdar Troyan
1 : 0 Pavlikeni
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Chavdar Troyan
0 : 4 Marek
19 Sept
Chavdar Troyan
1 : 0 Sevlievo
29 Aug
Chavdar Troyan
1 : 0 Pavlikeni
30 Sept
Chavdar Troyan
0 : 4 Kariana Erden
26 May
Chavdar Troyan
1 : 2 Tryavna
Page 1 of 3
Kariana Erden
(Away) 22 May
Hebar
3 : 0 Kariana Erden
12 May
Strumska Slava
3 : 0 Kariana Erden
03 May
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3 : 0 Kariana Erden
25 Apr
Kariana Erden
0 : 3 Septemvri Sofia
19 Apr
Kariana Erden
0 : 3 FC Lovech
Page 1 of 6
22 May
Hebar
3 : 0 Kariana Erden
12 May
Strumska Slava
3 : 0 Kariana Erden
03 May
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3 : 0 Kariana Erden
15 Apr
Dobrudzha
3 : 0 Kariana Erden
03 Apr
Lok. Sofia
3 : 0 Kariana Erden
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Oborishte Panagyurishte 1
Dobrudzha 0
TBD -
Botev Plovdiv -
Drenovets 2
Strumska Slava 1
TBD -
CSKA 1948 Sofia -
Svetkavitsa 1
Sozopol 4
TBD -
Etar -
Spartak Varna 2
Lok. Sofia 1
TBD -
Arda -
Sevlievo 6
Gorna 0
TBD -
Slavia Sofia -
Gorski Izvor 4
Septemvri Simitli 2
TBD -
Montana -
Partizan Cerven Brjag -
TBD -
TBD -
Levski Sofia -
Rodopa Smolyan 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad 2
TBD -
Beroe -
Botev Ihtiman 2
Neftochimic Burgas 0
TBD -
CSKA Sofia -
Dunav Ruse 0
Yantra Gabrovo 2
TBD -
Cherno More -
Nadezhda Dobroslavci 2
Minyor Pernik 1
TBD -
Botev Vratsa -
Chernomorets Balchik 3
Bistritsa 0
TBD -
Septemvri Sofia -
Chavdar Troyan 0
Kariana Erden 4
TBD -
Tsarsko Selo -
Sveti Nikola 0
Svoge 4
TBD -
Ludogorets -
Zagorets 2
Hebar 1
TBD -
Lok. Plovdiv -
Belasitsa Petrich 1
FC Lovech 0
TBD -
TBD -
1/16-finals
Oborishte Panagyurishte 0
Botev Plovdiv 4
Drenovets 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia 6
Sozopol 0
Etar 1
Spartak Varna 1
Arda 2
Sevlievo 1
Slavia Sofia 5
Gorski Izvor 1
Montana 2
Partizan Cerven Brjag 1
Levski Sofia 4
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3
Beroe 4
Botev Ihtiman 0
CSKA Sofia 5
Yantra Gabrovo 1
Cherno More 6
Nadezhda Dobroslavci 0
Botev Vratsa 2
Chernomorets Balchik 1
Septemvri Sofia 0
Kariana Erden 0
Tsarsko Selo 1
Svoge 1
Ludogorets 3
Zagorets 3
Lok. Plovdiv 4
Belasitsa Petrich -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Botev Plovdiv 1
CSKA 1948 Sofia 2
Etar 0
Arda 1
Slavia Sofia 2
Montana 1
Levski Sofia 3
Beroe 1
CSKA Sofia 3
Cherno More 1
Botev Vratsa 3
Chernomorets Balchik 0
Tsarsko Selo 1
Ludogorets 2
Lok. Plovdiv 2
Belasitsa Petrich 1
Quarter-finals
CSKA 1948 Sofia 0
Arda 1
Slavia Sofia 2
Levski Sofia 1
CSKA Sofia 4
Botev Vratsa 0
Ludogorets 2
Lok. Plovdiv 1
Semi-finals
Arda 1
Slavia Sofia 0
CSKA Sofia 3
Ludogorets 2
Final
Arda 0
CSKA Sofia 1
