Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chaves B vs Maria de Fonte - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Sun, Dec 6, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chaves B host Maria de Fonte in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group A. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: Chaves B at 1.53 goals for, 1.07 against; Maria de Fonte at 1.1 for, 1.86 against. Head-to-head, Chaves B have won 2 to Maria de Fonte's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Jan 26, 2020, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 0.76, favoring Chaves B. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Chaves B
15%
Draws
8%
Maria de Fonte
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chaves B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Maria de Fonte haven't matched Chaves B's recent run of results.
  • Chaves B are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Chaves B Clean Sheet 20%
Maria de Fonte Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chaves B Maria de Fonte
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 4
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.53 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Maria de Fonte vs Chaves B
1:2
Aug 25, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Chaves B vs Maria de Fonte
2:4
Apr 7, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Chaves B vs Maria de Fonte
3:0
Nov 18, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Maria de Fonte vs Chaves B
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chaves B 85 / 100
Maria de Fonte 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chaves B Maria de Fonte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chaves B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maria de Fonte let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Chaves B scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Chaves B remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chaves B VS Maria de Fonte
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chaves B

(Home)
01 Nov
Maia Lidador
1 : 0
Chaves B
25 Oct
Chaves B
0 : 1
Braga B
11 Oct
Brito
0 : 4
Chaves B
13 Sept
Chaves B
1 : 0
Celoricense
06 Sept
Vinhais
1 : 2
Chaves B
Page 1 of 6

Maria de Fonte

(Away)
01 Nov
CDC Montalegre
2 : 0
Maria de Fonte
25 Oct
Maria de Fonte
1 : 2
GD Braganca
11 Oct
Maia Lidador
1 : 1
Maria de Fonte
20 Sept
Paredes
5 : 1
Maria de Fonte
13 Sept
Maria de Fonte
0 : 4
Braga B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AD Limianos 7 5 2 0 17:10 17
2 Braga B 7 4 3 0 14:7 15
3 GD Braganca 7 4 1 2 9:6 13
4 CDC Montalegre 7 3 3 1 9:4 12
5 Tirsense 7 4 0 3 13:10 12
6 Chaves B 7 4 0 3 9:6 12
7 Ponte da Barca 7 3 1 3 7:9 10
8 Rebordosa 7 2 3 2 10:3 9
9 Celoricense 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
10 Vila Mea 7 2 3 2 10:8 9
11 Maia Lidador 7 2 2 3 9:9 8
12 Brito 7 2 0 5 9:17 6
13 Maria de Fonte 7 1 1 5 4:12 4
14 Vinhais 7 0 0 7 3:22 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)