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Chaves B vs Tirsense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Machado M.

AI Match Summary

Tirsense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tirsense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Chaves B
15%
Draws
42%
Tirsense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chaves B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Chaves B at 1.4 per game, Tirsense at 1.13.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Chaves B Clean Sheet 21%
Tirsense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chaves B Tirsense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 11
Draws 9 11
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.4 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Tirsense vs Chaves B
1:1
Dec 21, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Chaves B vs Tirsense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chaves B Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Tirsense Compare

Top Goalscorer Machado M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chaves B 37 / 100
Tirsense 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chaves B Tirsense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tirsense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chaves B found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Chaves B remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Tirsense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Chaves B VS Tirsense
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.25
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Chaves B

(Home)
13 Sept
Chaves B
1 : 0
Celoricense
06 Sept
Vinhais
1 : 2
Chaves B
23 Aug
Chaves B
1 : 0
Rebordosa
16 Aug
AD Limianos
3 : 1
Chaves B
08 Jul
Chaves
1 : 0
Chaves B
Page 1 of 6

Tirsense

(Away)
19 Sept
Mafra
3 : 2
Tirsense
13 Sept
Tirsense
2 : 0
Brito
06 Sept
Celoricense
2 : 1
Tirsense
23 Aug
Tirsense
3 : 0
Vinhais
16 Aug
Rebordosa
0 : 1
Tirsense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 GD Braganca 26 14 6 6 41:29 48
2 SC Vianense 26 14 6 6 49:28 48
3 Brito 26 14 4 8 36:24 46
4 Celoricense 26 11 9 6 35:23 42
5 AD Limianos 26 11 8 7 35:32 41
6 Tirsense 26 9 13 4 31:22 40
7 Camacha 26 9 9 8 34:26 36
8 Chaves B 26 9 9 8 40:29 36
9 Machico 26 10 6 10 28:30 36
10 Sao Martinho 26 10 4 12 22:31 34
11 SC Mirandela 26 10 2 14 21:29 32
12 Vilaverdense FC 26 4 9 13 15:31 21
13 CD Ribeira Brava 26 4 8 14 20:46 20
14 Desportivo Moncao 26 4 5 17 26:53 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)