Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026

Chelmianka Chelm

1 - 0

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Our Tip

Match Events

75'

Okoniewski K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Chelmianka Chelm in this III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chelmianka Chelm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%

Chelmianka Chelm

22%

Draws

60%

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski have won more games recently than Chelmianka Chelm.
60% — that's where the model lands on Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski taking it.
Regular III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 21%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%

Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 16%

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chelmianka Chelm	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
Matches Played	28	27
Wins	15	16
Draws	7	4
Losses	6	7
Goals Scored	1.43	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.43	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.43	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.43	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2026 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Possession: 59% - 53% Cards: 0 - 4

1:0

Oct 25, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 2 - 0

1:3

Apr 26, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 52% - 41% Cards: 0 - 2

3:0

Sep 28, 2024 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Possession: 49% - 52% Cards: 4 - 2

4:1

Feb 23, 2024 Club Friendly

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 50% - 41% Cards: 2 - 0

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelmianka Chelm Compare

Top Goalscorer Okoniewski K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.1

Avg xA / game 0.71

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelmianka Chelm 19 / 100

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chelmianka Chelm Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OST Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Chelmianka Chelm scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski has conceded goals in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Chelmianka Chelm stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chelmianka Chelm VS Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

1.43 Goals Scored 1.5

1.43 Goals Conceded 1.38

71% Over 1.5 75%

57% Over 2.5 63%

29% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Avia Swidnik	34	23	8	3	84:35	77
2	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	22	8	4	66:30	74
3	Chelmianka Chelm	34	21	9	4	65:31	72
4	Korona Kielce II	34	18	4	12	66:59	58
5	Star Starachowice	34	15	10	9	51:43	55
6	Czarni Polaniec	34	16	5	13	59:49	53
7	Biala Podlaska	34	14	10	10	60:48	52
8	Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow	34	14	9	11	61:45	51
9	Wislanie Skawina	34	15	6	13	52:51	51
10	Wisla II	34	15	4	15	67:58	49
11	Wisloka Debica	34	12	12	10	37:35	48
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	34	11	10	13	59:52	43
13	Naprzod Jedrzejow	34	11	5	18	45:55	38
14	Kolbuszowa Dolna	34	11	4	19	36:54	37
15	Stal Krasnik	34	9	7	18	42:52	34
16	Cracovia II	34	9	6	19	44:71	33
17	Swidniczanka Swidnik	34	5	4	25	35:80	19
18	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka	34	4	1	29	29:110	13