Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026

Swidniczanka Swidnik

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Chelmianka Chelm play Swidniczanka Swidnik in the III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026. Chelmianka Chelm are favorites here. Recently, Chelmianka Chelm averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1 conceded. Swidniczanka Swidnik averaged 1 goals scored and 2.53 conceded. In past meetings, Chelmianka Chelm won 1, Swidniczanka Swidnik won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 28, 2026 ended 6:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.44 for Chelmianka Chelm and 0.88 for Swidniczanka Swidnik. This points to a Chelmianka Chelm double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%

Chelmianka Chelm

23%

Draws

18%

Swidniczanka Swidnik

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Chelmianka Chelm

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence

Chelmianka Chelm picked up more points recently compared to Swidniczanka Swidnik.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.44 vs 0.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 63%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%

Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 25%

Swidniczanka Swidnik Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chelmianka Chelm	Swidniczanka Swidnik
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	16	5
Draws	8	2
Losses	5	23
Goals Scored	1.86	1
Goals Conceded	1	2.53
Expected Goals (xG)	2.25	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Swidniczanka Swidnik

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 0 - 3

6:1

Sep 6, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Swidniczanka Swidnik vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 52% - 58% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

May 2, 2025 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Swidniczanka Swidnik

Possession: 57% - 55% Cards: 1 - 2

2:2

Jan 25, 2025 Club Friendly

Swidniczanka Swidnik vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 43% - 48% Cards: 2 - 0

4:1

Oct 5, 2024 III Liga - Group IV

Swidniczanka Swidnik vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelmianka Chelm Compare

Top Goalscorer Okoniewski K.

3 Goals

Assists Leader Koncewicz-Zylka P.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.73

Avg xA / game 1.13

Swidniczanka Swidnik Compare

Top Goalscorer Bialek W.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelmianka Chelm 58 / 100

Swidniczanka Swidnik 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chelmianka Chelm Swidniczanka Swidnik

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chelmianka Chelm Win (1)

Secondary Pick Chelmianka Chelm & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.6%

1.96

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.3%

1.75

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chelmianka Chelm attacking → ← attacking Swidniczanka Swidnik

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelmianka Chelm scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Swidniczanka Swidnik let in goals in 100% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Chelmianka Chelm went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Swidniczanka Swidnik lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 17

2.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Avia Swidnik	34	23	8	3	84:35	77
2	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	22	8	4	66:30	74
3	Chelmianka Chelm	34	21	9	4	65:31	72
4	Korona Kielce II	34	18	4	12	66:59	58
5	Star Starachowice	34	15	10	9	51:43	55
6	Czarni Polaniec	34	16	5	13	59:49	53
7	Biala Podlaska	34	14	10	10	60:48	52
8	Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow	34	14	9	11	61:45	51
9	Wislanie Skawina	34	15	6	13	52:51	51
10	Wisla II	34	15	4	15	67:58	49
11	Wisloka Debica	34	12	12	10	37:35	48
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	34	11	10	13	59:52	43
13	Naprzod Jedrzejow	34	11	5	18	45:55	38
14	Kolbuszowa Dolna	34	11	4	19	36:54	37
15	Stal Krasnik	34	9	7	18	42:52	34
16	Cracovia II	34	9	6	19	44:71	33
17	Swidniczanka Swidnik	34	5	4	25	35:80	19
18	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka	34	4	1	29	29:110	13