Sport Picks
Match Events
7'
7'
White B.
Assist: Rice D.
42'
42'
Estêvão
42'
42'
Trossard L.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-3, with Arsenal advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
15%
54%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsenal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Chelsea haven't matched Arsenal's recent run of results.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Arsenal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Arsenal, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Arsenal here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 11%
Arsenal Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chelsea | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 20 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 15 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.93 | 1.58 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Premier League
Arsenal vs Chelsea
2:1
Mar 1, 2026 Premier League
Arsenal vs Chelsea
2:1
Feb 3, 2026 EFL Cup
Arsenal vs Chelsea
1:0
Jan 14, 2026 EFL Cup
Chelsea vs Arsenal
2:3
Nov 30, 2025 Premier League
Chelsea vs Arsenal
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chelsea Compare
Top Goalscorer Garnacho A.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Arsenal Compare
Top Goalscorer White B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gyokeres V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chelsea 30 / 100
Arsenal 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chelsea Arsenal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chelsea's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Chelsea went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Arsenal conceded in 55% of 31 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Chelsea VS Arsenal
3.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Chelsea
(Home) 18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0 Chelsea
12 Sept
Chelsea
2 : 2 Hull City
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3 Leeds
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Chelsea
2 : 2 Hull City
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3 Leeds
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
27 Aug
Chelsea
2 : 0 Luton
15 Aug
Chelsea
3 : 1 Real Sociedad
Page 1 of 4
Arsenal
(Away) 19 Sept
Brighton
3 : 0 Arsenal
15 Sept
Ipswich
2 : 4 Arsenal
12 Sept
Sunderland
0 : 2 Arsenal
09 Sept
Napoli
0 : 1 Arsenal
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Brighton
3 : 0 Arsenal
15 Sept
Ipswich
2 : 4 Arsenal
12 Sept
Sunderland
0 : 2 Arsenal
09 Sept
Napoli
0 : 1 Arsenal
31 Aug
Aston Villa
0 : 1 Arsenal
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
