Sport Picks

England

FA Cup Wembley Stadium, London

Chelsea

0 - 1

Manchester City

Our Tip

Match Events

29'

Fernandez E.

32'

Cucurella M.

46'

Sub

Marmoush O. In: Cherki R.

Out: Marmoush O.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Manchester City in this FA Cup tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Chelsea

11%

Draws

80%

Manchester City

Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Manchester City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Manchester City lately — more wins on the board than Chelsea.
Win probability leans Manchester City's way, sitting at 80%.
Manchester City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Manchester City, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
These two have met 5 times recently and Manchester City have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%

Chelsea Clean Sheet 10%

Manchester City Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Chelsea	Manchester City
Matches Played	30	35
Wins	13	24
Draws	3	6
Losses	14	5
Goals Scored	1.25	2.63
Goals Conceded	1.5	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 FA Cup

Chelsea vs Manchester City

0:1

Apr 12, 2026 Premier League

Chelsea vs Manchester City

0:3

Jan 4, 2026 Premier League

Manchester City vs Chelsea

1:1

Jan 25, 2025 Premier League

Manchester City vs Chelsea

3:1

Aug 18, 2024 Premier League

Chelsea vs Manchester City

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelsea Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Manchester City Compare

Top Goalscorer Semenyo A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.39

Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelsea 10 / 100

Manchester City 75 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Chelsea Manchester City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MCI Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelsea found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Manchester City has conceded goals in 51% of their last 35 outings.

Chelsea went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chelsea VS Manchester City

1.25 Goals Scored 2.63

1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63

63% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 88%

25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chelsea

(Home)

24 May

Sunderland

2 : 1

Chelsea

19 May

Chelsea

2 : 1

Tottenham

16 May

Chelsea

0 : 1

Manchester City

09 May

Liverpool

1 : 1

Chelsea

04 May

Chelsea

1 : 3

Nottingham

Page 1 of 6

Manchester City

(Away)

24 May

Manchester City

1 : 2

Aston Villa

19 May

Bournemouth

1 : 1

Manchester City

16 May

Chelsea

0 : 1

Manchester City

13 May

Manchester City

3 : 0

Crystal Palace

09 May

Manchester City

3 : 0

Brentford

Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Wrexham-

TBD-

Nottingham-

Ipswich-

TBD-

Blackpool1

Scunthorpe0

Reading2

Carlisle3

Hull City-

TBD-

Blackburn-

Charlton-

TBD-

Chelsea-

Port Vale5

Maldon & Tiptree1

Bromley1

Bristol Rovers2

Fleetwood Town2

Barnet1

Luton4

Forest Green3

Bristol City-

TBD-

Watford-

Colchester2

Milton Keynes Dons3

Oldham3

Northampton1

TBD-

Oxford Utd-

Everton-

TBD-

Sunderland-

Boreham Wood3

Crawley Town0

Newport3

Gillingham2

Brackley3

Notts County2

Burton6

St. Albans0

West Ham-

TBD-

QPR-

Slough Town2

Altrincham1

Macclesfield6

AFC Totton3

TBD-

Crystal Palace-

Sheffield Wed-

TBD-

Brentford-

Tranmere1

Stockport County3

Cambridge Utd3

Chester0

TBD-

Birmingham-

Derby-

TBD-

Leeds-

Norwich-

TBD-

AFC Wimbledon0

Gateshead2

Eastleigh0

Walsall3

Swansea-

TBD-

West Brom-

Tottenham-

TBD-

Aston Villa-

Newcastle Utd-

TBD-

Bournemouth-

Manchester City-

TBD-

Halifax0

Exeter2

Wycombe2

Plymouth0

Salford2

Lincoln City1

Tamworth0

Leyton Orient1

Rotherham1

Swindon2

Bolton2

Huddersfield1

Grimsby3

Ebbsfleet1

Wealdstone1

Southend0

Chelmsford4

Braintree1

Weston-super-Mare2

Aldershot1

Wolves-

TBD-

Sutton2

Telford1

South Shields1

Shrewsbury3

Liverpool-

TBD-

Peterborough1

Cardiff0

Barnsley3

York City2

Manchester United-

TBD-

Brighton-

Stoke City-

TBD-

Coventry-

Fulham-

TBD-

Middlesbrough-

Stevenage0

Chesterfield1

Crewe1

Doncaster2

TBD-

Southampton-

Cheltenham1

Bradford City0

Buxton2

Chatham1

TBD-

Leicester-

Burnley-

TBD-

Millwall-

Sheffield Utd-

TBD-

Gainsborough1

Accrington2

Mansfield3

Harrogate2

Portsmouth-

TBD-

Arsenal-

Preston-

TBD-

Wigan2

Hemel Hempstead1

Spennymoor0

Barrow2

1/64-finals

Wrexham-

TBD-

Nottingham-

Ipswich-

TBD-

Blackpool4

Carlisle1

Hull City-

TBD-

Blackburn-

Charlton-

TBD-

Chelsea-

Port Vale1

Bristol Rovers0

Fleetwood Town3

Luton2

Bristol City-

TBD-

Watford-

Milton Keynes Dons3

Oldham1

TBD-

Oxford Utd-

Everton-

TBD-

Sunderland-

Boreham Wood3

Newport0

Brackley1

Burton3

West Ham-

TBD-

QPR-

Slough Town1

Macclesfield3

TBD-

Crystal Palace-

Sheffield Wed-

TBD-

Brentford-

Stockport County0

Cambridge Utd1

TBD-

Birmingham-

Derby-

TBD-

Leeds-

Norwich-

TBD-

Gateshead0

Walsall2

Swansea-

TBD-

West Brom-

Tottenham-

TBD-

Aston Villa-

Newcastle Utd-

TBD-

Bournemouth-

Manchester City-

TBD-

Exeter4

Wycombe0

Salford4

Leyton Orient0

Swindon4

Bolton0

Grimsby4

Wealdstone0

Chelmsford0

Weston-super-Mare2

Wolves-

TBD-

Sutton1

Shrewsbury2

Liverpool-

TBD-

Peterborough0

Barnsley1

Manchester United-

TBD-

Brighton-

Stoke City-

TBD-

Coventry-

Fulham-

TBD-

Middlesbrough-

Chesterfield1

Doncaster2

TBD-

Southampton-

Cheltenham6

Buxton2

TBD-

Leicester-

Burnley-

TBD-

Millwall-

Sheffield Utd-

TBD-

Accrington2

Mansfield3

Portsmouth-

TBD-

Arsenal-

Preston-

TBD-

Wigan3

Barrow2

1/32-finals

Wrexham4

Nottingham3

Ipswich2

Blackpool1

Hull City1

Blackburn0

Charlton1

Chelsea5

Port Vale1

Fleetwood Town0

Bristol City5

Watford1

Milton Keynes Dons1

Oxford Utd2

Everton1

Sunderland2

Boreham Wood0

Burton5

West Ham2

QPR1

Macclesfield2

Crystal Palace1

Sheffield Wed0

Brentford2

Cambridge Utd2

Birmingham3

Derby1

Leeds3

Norwich5

Walsall1

Swansea2

West Brom3

Tottenham1

Aston Villa2

Newcastle Utd4

Bournemouth3

Manchester City10

Exeter1

Salford3

Swindon2

Grimsby3

Weston-super-Mare2

Wolves6

Shrewsbury1

Liverpool4

Barnsley1

Manchester United1

Brighton2

Stoke City1

Coventry0

Fulham3

Middlesbrough1

Doncaster2

Southampton3

Cheltenham0

Leicester2

Burnley5

Millwall1

Sheffield Utd3

Mansfield4

Portsmouth1

Arsenal4

Preston0

Wigan1

1/16-finals

Wrexham1

Ipswich0

Hull City0

Chelsea4

Port Vale1

Bristol City0

Oxford Utd0

Sunderland1

Burton0

West Ham1

Macclesfield0

Brentford1

Birmingham1

Leeds2

Norwich3

West Brom1

Aston Villa1

Newcastle Utd3

Manchester City2

Salford0

Grimsby0

Wolves1

Liverpool3

Brighton0

Stoke City1

Fulham2

Southampton2

Leicester1

Burnley1

Mansfield2

Arsenal4

Wigan0

1/8-finals

Wrexham2

Chelsea4

Port Vale1

Sunderland0

West Ham3

Brentford2

Leeds3

Norwich0

Newcastle Utd1

Manchester City3

Wolves1

Liverpool3

Fulham0

Southampton1

Mansfield1

Arsenal2

Quarter-finals

Chelsea7

Port Vale0

West Ham2

Leeds3

Manchester City4

Liverpool0

Southampton2

Arsenal1

Semi-finals

Chelsea1

Leeds0

Manchester City2

Southampton1

Final

Chelsea0

Manchester City1