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Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W

England England

WSL Kingsmeadow
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Grant C.
Assist: Wilms L.
20' Event
Kerr S.
Assist: Nusken S.
23' Event
Girma N.
Assist: James L.

AI Match Summary

Chelsea W in this WSL matchup, with the score ending 4-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chelsea W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Chelsea W
6%
Draws
4%
Aston Villa W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Chelsea W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Chelsea W has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Aston Villa W.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Chelsea W.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in WSL provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Chelsea W Clean Sheet 68%
Aston Villa W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chelsea W Aston Villa W
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 22 8
Draws 4 7
Losses 5 15
Goals Scored 2 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.71
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 WSL
Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W
4:3
Sep 14, 2025 WSL
Aston Villa W vs Chelsea W
1:3
Feb 2, 2025 WSL
Aston Villa W vs Chelsea W
0:1
Sep 20, 2024 WSL
Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W
1:0
Apr 17, 2024 WSL
Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelsea W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kerr S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Girma N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Aston Villa W Compare

Top Goalscorer Hanson K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Grant C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelsea W 95 / 100
Aston Villa W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chelsea W Aston Villa W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelsea W scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

Aston Villa W let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Chelsea W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Aston Villa W lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chelsea W VS Aston Villa W
2 Goals Scored 1.29
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.71
100% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 71%
25% Over 3.5 29%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Manchester City W22181362:1955
2Arsenal W22156153:1451
3Chelsea W22154344:2049
4Manchester United W22117438:2240
5Tottenham W22113835:3836
6London City Lionesses W22831128:3527
7Brighton W22751027:2826
8Everton W22721325:3723
9Aston Villa W22551228:4820
10West Ham W22541320:4519
11Liverpool W22451321:3417
12Leicester W22231711:529