Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Chelyabinsk vs Neftekhimik

Russia Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Central Stadium, Chelyabinsk
Our Tip

Match Events

1'
N'Diaye B.
7' Event
Komissarov T.
46'
Sub
Titov D. In: Gvenetadze A.
Out: Titov D.

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2025/2026 game between Chelyabinsk and Neftekhimik finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chelyabinsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Chelyabinsk
20%
Draws
22%
Neftekhimik
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chelyabinsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Chelyabinsk haven't matched Neftekhimik's recent run of results.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Chelyabinsk taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Chelyabinsk Clean Sheet 68%
Neftekhimik Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chelyabinsk Neftekhimik
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 9
Draws 11 6
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.14 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 FNL
Chelyabinsk vs Neftekhimik
2:0
Aug 30, 2025 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk
1:1
Oct 28, 2018 FNL 2 - Group 4
Chelyabinsk vs Neftekhimik
0:0
Aug 26, 2018 FNL 2 - Group 4
Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk
2:1
Apr 10, 2018 FNL 2 - Group 4
Chelyabinsk vs Neftekhimik
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chelyabinsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Komissarov T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Neftekhimik Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chelyabinsk 50 / 100
Neftekhimik 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chelyabinsk Neftekhimik

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chelyabinsk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelyabinsk's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Neftekhimik has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Chelyabinsk stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chelyabinsk VS Neftekhimik
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chelyabinsk

(Home)
26 Sept
Chelyabinsk
1 : 1
Yenisey
18 Sept
Chelyabinsk
2 : 1
Ufa
14 Sept
Kamaz
1 : 1
Chelyabinsk
10 Sept
Dynamo Barnaul
0 : 2
Chelyabinsk
05 Sept
Chelyabinsk
0 : 1
S. Kostroma
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Neftekhimik

(Away)
18 Sept
Neftekhimik
0 : 1
Ural
14 Sept
S. Kostroma
1 : 0
Neftekhimik
09 Sept
FC Chertanovo Moscow
2 : 1
Neftekhimik
05 Sept
Yenisey
0 : 2
Neftekhimik
28 Aug
Neftekhimik
0 : 1
Ufa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rodina Moscow 34 19 11 4 58:28 68
2 Fakel Voronezh 34 20 8 6 44:22 68
3 Ural 34 18 7 9 51:31 61
4 R. Volgograd 34 15 11 8 47:26 56
5 Kamaz 34 12 13 9 46:34 49
6 Yenisey 34 13 10 11 37:35 49
7 S. Kostroma 34 12 13 9 46:41 49
8 Shinnik Yaroslavl 34 11 15 8 34:28 48
9 Torpedo Moscow 34 12 10 12 37:39 46
10 Chelyabinsk 34 10 14 10 42:40 44
11 Neftekhimik 34 10 13 11 40:41 43
12 SKA Khabarovsk 34 10 12 12 37:45 42
13 Arsenal Tula 34 8 15 11 42:44 39
14 Ulyanovsk 34 9 10 15 35:48 37
15 Ufa 34 9 10 15 32:40 37
16 Chernomorets Novorossijsk 34 9 8 17 37:49 35
17 Saratov 34 5 11 18 16:44 26
18 FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye 34 5 7 22 30:76 22
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Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)