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Chemal vs Douane - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mauritania Mauritania

Ligue 1 2025/2026
Chemal Logo

Chemal

1 - 1
FT
Douane Logo

Douane

Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Mohamedou E.
78' Event
Arwel D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Chemal and Douane finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Chemal
30%
Draws
23%
Douane
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chemal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Douane come out ahead of Chemal on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Chemal taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Chemal Clean Sheet 68%
Douane Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chemal Douane
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 7 10
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.38 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Douane
1:1
Dec 13, 2025 Ligue 1
Douane vs Chemal
0:3
Feb 27, 2025 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Douane
0:0
Oct 19, 2024 Ligue 1
Douane vs Chemal
3:2
Apr 13, 2024 Ligue 1
Douane vs Chemal
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chemal Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohamedou E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Douane Compare

Top Goalscorer Arwel D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chemal 86 / 100
Douane 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chemal Douane

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chemal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Chemal scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Douane has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Chemal stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chemal VS Douane
1.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Chemal

(Home)
25 May
Chemal
1 : 0
Pompiers
16 May
Inter Nouakchott
3 : 5
Chemal
12 May
Chemal
3 : 4
Nouakchott King's
03 May
Police
0 : 1
Chemal
11 Apr
Chemal
1 : 1
Douane
Page 1 of 6

Douane

(Away)
19 Sept
Hafia
0 : 1
Douane
05 Sept
Douane
2 : 2
Hafia
25 May
Nzeidane
3 : 0
Douane
19 May
Douane
0 : 1
Gendrim
09 May
Kaedi
1 : 1
Douane
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nouadhibou 26 17 7 2 49:15 58
2 Nzeidane 26 13 7 6 42:35 46
3 Douane 26 12 9 5 40:29 45
4 Pompiers 26 11 11 4 29:22 44
5 Nouakchott Academy 26 10 9 7 32:22 39
6 Gendrim 26 9 10 7 26:29 37
7 Chemal 26 10 6 10 34:35 36
8 Nouakchott King's 26 8 10 8 37:34 34
9 SNIM 26 7 12 7 29:28 33
10 Tevragh-Zeina 26 7 11 8 34:33 32
11 Police 26 5 11 10 28:31 26
12 Kaedi 26 5 8 13 21:37 23
13 Ksar 26 4 5 17 23:48 17
14 Inter Nouakchott 26 3 6 17 24:50 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)