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Chemal vs Nouakchott King's - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mauritania Mauritania

Ligue 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
El Kheir Faraji M.
52' Event
Chems Dine E.
55' Event
N'Gara S.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Chemal and Nouakchott King's finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nouakchott King's.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Chemal
15%
Draws
46%
Nouakchott King's
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nouakchott King's

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chemal come out ahead of Nouakchott King's on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Chemal Clean Sheet 13%
Nouakchott King's Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chemal Nouakchott King's
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 7 11
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.38 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Nouakchott King's
3:4
Dec 30, 2025 Ligue 1
Nouakchott King's vs Chemal
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 Ligue 1
Nouakchott King's vs Chemal
2:2
Sep 14, 2024 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Nouakchott King's
0:1
Feb 17, 2024 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Nouakchott King's
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chemal Compare

Top Goalscorer El Kheir Faraji M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N'Gara S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Nouakchott King's Compare

Top Goalscorer Chems Dine E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fodie T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chemal 31 / 100
Nouakchott King's 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chemal Nouakchott King's

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Chemal's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Nouakchott King's has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Chemal remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chemal VS Nouakchott King's
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Chemal

(Home)
25 May
Chemal
1 : 0
Pompiers
16 May
Inter Nouakchott
3 : 5
Chemal
12 May
Chemal
3 : 4
Nouakchott King's
03 May
Police
0 : 1
Chemal
11 Apr
Chemal
1 : 1
Douane
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Nouakchott King's

(Away)
23 May
Nouakchott King's
2 : 0
Kaedi
17 May
Nouakchott King's
3 : 2
Nouadhibou
12 May
Chemal
3 : 4
Nouakchott King's
07 May
Nouakchott King's
1 : 2
Nouakchott Academy
11 Apr
SNIM
1 : 3
Nouakchott King's
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nouadhibou 26 17 7 2 49:15 58
2 Nzeidane 26 13 7 6 42:35 46
3 Douane 26 12 9 5 40:29 45
4 Pompiers 26 11 11 4 29:22 44
5 Nouakchott Academy 26 10 9 7 32:22 39
6 Gendrim 26 9 10 7 26:29 37
7 Chemal 26 10 6 10 34:35 36
8 Nouakchott King's 26 8 10 8 37:34 34
9 SNIM 26 7 12 7 29:28 33
10 Tevragh-Zeina 26 7 11 8 34:33 32
11 Police 26 5 11 10 28:31 26
12 Kaedi 26 5 8 13 21:37 23
13 Ksar 26 4 5 17 23:48 17
14 Inter Nouakchott 26 3 6 17 24:50 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)