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Chemal vs Police - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mauritania Mauritania

Ligue 1
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
VS
05:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chemal host Police in the Ligue 1. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Chemal at 1.38 goals for, 1.31 against; Police at 1.03 for, 1.18 against. Head-to-head, Chemal have won 3 to Police's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.38 - 1.00) back Chemal to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Chemal
20%
Draws
7%
Police
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chemal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chemal come out ahead of Police on wins alone.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Chemal taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Chemal here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Chemal Clean Sheet 20%
Police Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chemal Police
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 11
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.38 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Ligue 1
Police vs Chemal
0:1
Dec 21, 2025 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Police
1:1
Mar 18, 2023 Ligue 1
Chemal vs Police
2:0
Nov 13, 2022 Ligue 1
Police vs Chemal
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chemal 85 / 100
Police 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chemal Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chemal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chemal's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Police has conceded goals in 73% of their last 33 outings.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Chemal stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chemal VS Police
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Chemal

(Home)
25 May
Chemal
1 : 0
Pompiers
16 May
Inter Nouakchott
3 : 5
Chemal
12 May
Chemal
3 : 4
Nouakchott King's
03 May
Police
0 : 1
Chemal
11 Apr
Chemal
1 : 1
Douane
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
25 May
Gendrim
2 : 1
Police
20 May
Police
0 : 1
Kaedi
10 May
Nouadhibou
4 : 1
Police
03 May
Police
0 : 1
Chemal
12 Apr
Nouakchott Academy
0 : 0
Police
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tevragh-Zeina 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Nouadhibou 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 SNIM 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Kedia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Nouakchott King's 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Armee 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Police 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Kaedi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Douane 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Gendrim 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Chemal 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Pompiers 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Nzeidane 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Nouakchott Academy 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)