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Chemnitzer vs Erfurt - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Nordost
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chemnitzer host Erfurt in the Regionalliga Nordost. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Erfurt have shipped 1.24 goals a game lately, while Chemnitzer have conceded 1.14 and scored 2.17. Head-to-head, Chemnitzer have won 1 to Erfurt's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Mar 14, 2026, ending 0:4. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 2.00, favoring Erfurt. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Chemnitzer
20%
Draws
38%
Erfurt
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chemnitzer

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Erfurt at 2.72 per game, Chemnitzer at 2.17.
  • Win probability leans Chemnitzer's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Regionalliga Nordost form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Chemnitzer Clean Sheet 10%
Erfurt Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chemnitzer Erfurt
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 17
Draws 5 7
Losses 7 5
Goals Scored 2.17 2.72
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Regionalliga Nordost
Chemnitzer vs Erfurt
0:4
Sep 20, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Chemnitzer
2:2
Apr 20, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Chemnitzer vs Erfurt
2:0
Oct 27, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Chemnitzer
0:0
May 19, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Chemnitzer vs Erfurt
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chemnitzer 56 / 100
Erfurt 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chemnitzer Erfurt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chemnitzer Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chemnitzer scored in 86% of their last 29 games.

Erfurt's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Chemnitzer went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Chemnitzer VS Erfurt
1.75 Goals Scored 3.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Chemnitzer

(Home)
30 Sept
Chemnitzer
4 : 0
Rabenstein
26 Sept
Rsv Eintracht
0 : 4
Chemnitzer
20 Sept
Chemie Leipzig
1 : 3
Chemnitzer
16 Sept
Chemnitzer
0 : 1
Babelsberg
11 Sept
Altglienicke
0 : 2
Chemnitzer
Page 1 of 6

Erfurt

(Away)
26 Sept
Lokomotive Leipzig
3 : 4
Erfurt
19 Sept
Erfurt
2 : 2
Aue
15 Sept
Hertha Berlin II
1 : 2
Erfurt
11 Sept
Erfurt
5 : 0
Rsv Eintracht
29 Aug
Erfurt
1 : 1
BFC Preussen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Erfurt 11 8 3 0 36:11 27
2 Chemnitzer 11 8 2 1 25:5 26
3 Hallescher 11 6 4 1 18:9 22
4 BFC Dynamo 11 6 3 2 20:12 21
5 Altglienicke 11 6 3 2 20:14 21
6 Aue 11 6 3 2 20:16 21
7 Jena 11 6 1 4 19:10 19
8 Greifswalder FC 11 5 4 2 23:16 19
9 Lokomotive Leipzig 11 4 3 4 23:23 15
10 Zwickau 11 4 3 4 13:17 15
11 Magdeburg II 11 4 1 6 20:23 13
12 Babelsberg 11 3 3 5 14:17 12
13 BFC Preussen 11 2 4 5 14:17 10
14 Chemie Leipzig 11 2 3 6 12:17 9
15 Hertha Berlin II 11 2 3 6 9:21 9
16 Rsv Eintracht 11 1 3 7 13:29 6
17 SV Tasmania Berlin 11 1 2 8 13:36 5
18 Luckenwalde 11 1 0 10 9:28 3
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)