Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Chepstow Town in this FA Cup 2023/2024 tie, finishing 7-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chepstow Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Chepstow Town lately — more wins on the board than Pill.
- 43% — that's where the model lands on Chepstow Town taking it.
- Chepstow Town have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Pill, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Chepstow Town Clean Sheet 10%
Pill Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chepstow Town | Pill |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 17 | 8 |
| Wins | 9 | 4 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 8 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.94 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.76 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 21, 2024 FAW Welsh Cup
Chepstow Town vs Pill
0:1
Sep 16, 2023 FAW Welsh Cup
Chepstow Town vs Pill
7:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chepstow Town 83 / 100
Pill 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chepstow Town Pill
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chepstow Town Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Chepstow Town's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 17 recent games.
Pill has conceded goals in 71% of their last 7 outings.
Away concern: Pill has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Chepstow Town VS Pill
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
2.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Chepstow Town
(Home) 21 Sept
Chepstow Town
0 : 1 Pill
11 Nov
South Gower AFC
3 : 2 Chepstow Town
14 Oct
Chepstow Town
4 : 0 Abercarn United
16 Sept
Chepstow Town
7 : 0 Pill
08 Oct
Chepstow Town
1 : 2 Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 4
21 Sept
Chepstow Town
0 : 1 Pill
14 Oct
Chepstow Town
4 : 0 Abercarn United
16 Sept
Chepstow Town
7 : 0 Pill
08 Oct
Chepstow Town
1 : 2 Pontypridd United
17 Sept
Chepstow Town
1 : 0 Rockspur
Page 1 of 2
Pill
(Away) 20 Sept
Pill
: Treowen
16 Nov
Llanelli
4 : 0 Pill
19 Oct
Monmouth
2 : 3 Pill
21 Sept
Chepstow Town
0 : 1 Pill
16 Sept
Chepstow Town
7 : 0 Pill
Page 1 of 2
16 Nov
Llanelli
4 : 0 Pill
19 Oct
Monmouth
2 : 3 Pill
21 Sept
Chepstow Town
0 : 1 Pill
16 Sept
Chepstow Town
7 : 0 Pill
12 Nov
Pontardawe
3 : 1 Pill
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Penrhyncoch 2
Chirk AAA FC 4
Porthmadog 3
Glantraeth FC 0
Newport City 0
Abergavenny Town 2
Cardiff Airport 3
Cefn Fforest 1
Rhyl 1
Menai Bridge Tigers 2
Tregaron Turfs 2
Llanuwchllyn 10
Corwen 0
Bow Street 4
TBD -
Buckley -
Penparcau FC 0
Cefn Albion 1
Holyhead 0
Bangor 1876 4
Cerrigydrudion 2
Denbigh 4
TBD -
Flint Town -
Connahs Q. -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
St. Asaph 1
Llandudno Junction 0
TBD -
Prestatyn -
Cardiff Corries 2
Caerau Ely 3
TBD -
Afan Lido -
Llanidloes Town 5
Builth 4
Radnor Valley 0
Gresford 4
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Pontardawe -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Llandudno FC -
NFA 0
Flint Mountain 3
TBD -
Holywell Town FC -
Canton 3
Sully Sports 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Penydarren 2
South Gower AFC 3
Rockspur 4
Afan United 2
Chepstow Town 7
Pill 0
Abercarn United 4
St Albans 1
Haverfordwest -
TBD -
Baglan Dragons 5
Cwmaman Institute 1
Goytre Utd 1
Trefelin 3
Ammanford Town 1
Taffs Well 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Aber Valley 2
Cwmbran Town 3
Mochdre Sports 0
Nantlle Vale FC 2
Mold Alexandra 13
Montgomery 1
Pwllheli 1
Felinheli 2
TBD -
Newtown -
Colwyn Bay -
TBD -
Llanrwst United 2
Conwy Borough 1
Barry Town -
TBD -
Treharris Athletic 1
Porthcawl Town 2
Brickfield Rangers 3
Caersws FC 1
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
TBD -
Penycae FC 1
Rhos Aelwyd 4
Aberfan 2
Pontyclun FC 1
TBD -
Briton Ferry -
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Llantwit Major -
Cwmbran Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
Mumbles Rangers 1
Evans Williams 2
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Abertillery Bluebirds 2
Caerphilly 1
Ruthin Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Trethomas Bluebirds 4
Ely Rangers 1
Llantwit Fardre 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 4
1/32-finals
Chirk AAA FC 1
Porthmadog 2
Abergavenny Town 1
Cardiff Airport 3
Menai Bridge Tigers 0
Llanuwchllyn 2
Bow Street 2
Buckley 3
Cefn Albion 1
Bangor 1876 7
Denbigh 0
Flint Town 3
Connahs Q. 4
Caernarfon 1
St. Asaph 0
Prestatyn 1
Caerau Ely 4
Afan Lido 0
Llanidloes Town 1
Gresford 3
Aberystwyth 2
Pontardawe 1
Bala 3
Llandudno FC 0
Flint Mountain 3
Holywell Town FC 1
Canton 2
Cambrian United 1
South Gower AFC 1
Rockspur 0
Chepstow Town 4
Abercarn United 0
Haverfordwest 1
Baglan Dragons 0
Trefelin 2
Ammanford Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 4
Cwmbran Town 0
Nantlle Vale FC 2
Mold Alexandra 3
Felinheli 0
Newtown 6
Colwyn Bay 6
Llanrwst United 2
Barry Town 6
Porthcawl Town 0
Brickfield Rangers 2
Guilsfield 7
Airbus UK Broughton FC 4
Rhos Aelwyd 0
Aberfan 0
Briton Ferry 3
Llanelli 4
Llantwit Major 0
Cwmbran Celtic 0
Penybont 3
Carmarthen Town 2
Evans Williams 0
Pontypridd United -
Abertillery Bluebirds -
Ruthin Town 0
TNS 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 1
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 5
Cardiff Airport 1
Llanuwchllyn 1
Buckley 2
Bangor 1876 1
Flint Town 2
Connahs Q. 8
Prestatyn 0
Caerau Ely 4
Gresford 3
Aberystwyth 0
Bala 1
Flint Mountain 2
Canton 1
South Gower AFC 3
Chepstow Town 2
Haverfordwest 2
Ammanford Town 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Mold Alexandra 1
Newtown 1
Colwyn Bay 2
Barry Town 1
Guilsfield 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 1
Briton Ferry 2
Llanelli 4
Penybont 3
Carmarthen Town 4
Abertillery Bluebirds 2
TNS 7
Trethomas Bluebirds 0
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 0
Buckley 2
Flint Town 0
Connahs Q. 3
Caerau Ely 1
Bala 4
Flint Mountain 2
South Gower AFC 1
Haverfordwest 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Colwyn Bay 2
Barry Town 0
Briton Ferry 1
Llanelli 0
Carmarthen Town 0
TNS 3
Quarter-finals
Buckley 1
Connahs Q. 4
Bala 3
Flint Mountain 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Colwyn Bay 2
Briton Ferry 1
TNS 5
Semi-finals
Connahs Q. 1
Bala 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 6
Final
Connahs Q. 2
TNS 1
