Sport Picks
Match Events
62'
62'
Williams A.
AI Match Summary
Chesham in this National League South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Chesham.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
20%
57%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tonbridge
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Chesham have won more games recently than Tonbridge.
- Model gives Tonbridge a 57% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Chesham Clean Sheet 10%
Tonbridge Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Chesham | Tonbridge |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 14 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 10 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.86 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2026 National League South
Chesham vs Tonbridge
1:0
Aug 23, 2025 National League South
Tonbridge vs Chesham
0:0
Mar 11, 2025 National League South
Chesham vs Tonbridge
0:1
Dec 17, 2024 National League South
Tonbridge vs Chesham
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Chesham Compare
Top Goalscorer Williams A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Tonbridge Compare
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Chesham 14 / 100
Tonbridge 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Chesham Tonbridge
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Chesham scored in 82% of their last 28 games.
Tonbridge let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 0.75 goals when they meet.
Chesham went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Chesham VS Tonbridge
1.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Chesham
(Home) 08 Aug
Weston-super-Mare
3 : 0 Chesham
28 Jul
Chertsey Town
2 : 1 Chesham
21 Jul
Basingstoke
2 : 6 Chesham
25 Apr
Dover Ath.
2 : 2 Chesham
18 Apr
Chesham
0 : 2 Chelmsford
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
Chesham
0 : 2 Chelmsford
06 Apr
Chesham
4 : 1 Slough Town
28 Mar
Chesham
1 : 0 Tonbridge
24 Mar
Chesham
1 : 2 Hornchurch
21 Mar
Chesham
4 : 2 Maidstone
Page 1 of 3
Tonbridge
(Away) 08 Aug
Braintree
0 : 4 Tonbridge
28 Jul
Tonbridge
4 : 2 Eastbourne Borough
25 Jul
Tonbridge
3 : 1 Dulwich Hamlet
21 Jul
Tonbridge
2 : 2 Sittingbourne
14 Jul
Tonbridge
0 : 2 Sutton
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
Braintree
0 : 4 Tonbridge
18 Apr
Farnborough
1 : 6 Tonbridge
06 Apr
Eastbourne Borough
1 : 1 Tonbridge
28 Mar
Chesham
1 : 0 Tonbridge
17 Mar
Weston-super-Mare
0 : 1 Tonbridge
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worthing FC | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 99:52 | 84 |
| 2 | Hornchurch | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 81:64 | 81 |
| 3 | Torquay | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 87:62 | 80 |
| 4 | Dorking Wanderers | 46 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 78:61 | 79 |
| 5 | Hemel Hempstead | 46 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 55:48 | 79 |
| 6 | Weston-super-Mare | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 61:48 | 78 |
| 7 | Maidenhead | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 66:41 | 77 |
| 8 | Maidstone | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 72:50 | 77 |
| 9 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 73:54 | 77 |
| 10 | Chelmsford | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 73:62 | 73 |
| 11 | Chesham | 46 | 21 | 9 | 16 | 68:55 | 72 |
| 12 | AFC Totton | 46 | 20 | 6 | 20 | 60:79 | 66 |
| 13 | Dagenham & Red. | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 61:62 | 64 |
| 14 | Tonbridge | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 66:65 | 60 |
| 15 | Horsham FC | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 53:54 | 59 |
| 16 | Slough Town | 46 | 15 | 9 | 22 | 69:87 | 54 |
| 17 | Salisbury | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 50:65 | 53 |
| 18 | Hampton & Richmond | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 56:72 | 53 |
| 19 | Farnborough | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 72:92 | 53 |
| 20 | Dover Ath. | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 60:75 | 50 |
| 21 | Bath City | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 50:77 | 43 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 53:80 | 42 |
| 23 | Enfield Town | 46 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 55:82 | 40 |
| 24 | Eastbourne Borough | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 59:90 | 36 |
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League South 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League South 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
