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Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

US Open Cup Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Chicago Fire Logo

Chicago Fire

1 - 2
FT
St. Louis City Logo

St. Louis City

Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Radojevic V.
59'
Sub
Teuchert C. In: Lowen E.
Out: Teuchert C.
59'
Sub
Wallem C. In: Joyner M.
Out: Wallem C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Chicago Fire
20%
Draws
52%
St. Louis City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: St. Louis City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • St. Louis City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on St. Louis City taking it.
  • St. Louis City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Chicago Fire, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 10%
St. Louis City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chicago Fire St. Louis City
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 17
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 4
Goals Scored 1.89 2.11
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2026 US Open Cup
Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City
1:2
Aug 17, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City
3:2
May 12, 2024 MLS
St. Louis City vs Chicago Fire
3:1
May 13, 2023 MLS
Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City
1:0
May 10, 2023 US Open Cup
Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chicago Fire Compare

Top Goalscorer Saletros A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

St. Louis City Compare

Top Goalscorer Totland T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lowen E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chicago Fire 10 / 100
St. Louis City 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chicago Fire St. Louis City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Louis City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Chicago Fire scored in 96% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

St. Louis City has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Chicago Fire remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Chicago Fire VS St. Louis City
1.63 Goals Scored 2.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Chicago Fire

(Home)
07 Oct
Chicago Fire
3 : 1
Vancouver Whitecaps
26 Sept
Charlotte FC
0 : 1
Chicago Fire
20 Sept
Nashville SC
3 : 0
Chicago Fire
13 Sept
Chicago Fire
1 : 2
New England Revolution
10 Sept
Chicago Fire
1 : 1
Inter Miami
Page 1 of 6

St. Louis City

(Away)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1
Toronto FC
17 Sept
Colorado Rapids
0 : 3
St. Louis City
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2
Minnesota United
10 Sept
Portland Timbers
2 : 2
St. Louis City
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
FC Naples 3
Red Force 0
South Georgia Tormenta -
America CFL Spurs -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Orlando City -
New England Revolution -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Rhode Island 4
Faialense 0
Motown 0
Hartford Athletic 2
Chattanooga 2
Kalonji 1
Tennessee Tempo 1
Chattanooga Red Wolves 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Atlanta United -
Charlotte FC -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Charlotte Independence 4
Ristozi FC 1
Charleston 2
Florida Badgers 1
Richmond Kickers 2
Northern Virginia 0
West Chester United 1
Loudoun United 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Columbus Crew -
DC United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Asheville City 3
Greenville Triumph 1
Vistula 1
One Knoxville 3
Vermont Green 1
Portland Hearts of Pine 0
Westchester SC 2
NY Renegades 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
New York City -
New York Red Bulls -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Steel City 1
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2
Carolina Core 1
Virginia Dream 2
Flint City 2
Forward Madison 0
Detroit City 5
Michigan Rangers 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chicago Fire -
St. Louis City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
San Antonio FC 6
New Stars 0
Little Rock Rangers 2
FC Tulsa 4
Lexington 9
Flower City Union 0
Louisville City 2
Southern Indiana 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Austin FC -
Houston Dynamo -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
New Mexico 3
Cruizers FC 2
Laredo Heat 0
El Paso Locomotive 2
Colorado Springs 3
Azteca 0
Ventura 1
Spokane Velocity 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Sporting Kansas City -
Colorado Rapids -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Indy Eleven 3
Menace 0
BOHFS St. Louis 0
Union Omaha 8
AV Alta FC 0
Valley 559 FC 1
Sacramento Republic 2
El Farolito 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Minnesota United -
San Jose Earthquakes -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Orange County SC 3
Laguna United 0
Phoenix Rising 4
San Ramon 0
1/32-finals
FC Naples 3
America CFL Spurs 0
TBD -
Orlando City -
New England Revolution -
TBD -
Rhode Island 2
Hartford Athletic 0
Chattanooga 1
Tennessee Tempo 0
TBD -
Atlanta United -
Charlotte FC -
TBD -
Charlotte Independence 3
Charleston 2
Richmond Kickers 1
Loudoun United 0
TBD -
Columbus Crew -
DC United -
TBD -
Asheville City 1
One Knoxville 2
Vermont Green 0
Westchester SC 1
TBD -
New York City -
New York Red Bulls -
TBD -
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2
Virginia Dream 0
Flint City 0
Detroit City 1
TBD -
Chicago Fire -
St. Louis City -
TBD -
San Antonio FC 0
FC Tulsa 1
Lexington 0
Louisville City 2
TBD -
Austin FC -
Houston Dynamo -
TBD -
New Mexico 0
El Paso Locomotive 4
Colorado Springs 2
Spokane Velocity 1
TBD -
Sporting Kansas City -
Colorado Rapids -
TBD -
Indy Eleven 1
Union Omaha 2
Valley 559 FC 0
Sacramento Republic 4
TBD -
Minnesota United -
San Jose Earthquakes -
TBD -
Orange County SC 1
Phoenix Rising 2
1/16-finals
FC Naples 0
Orlando City 1
New England Revolution 2
Rhode Island 1
Chattanooga 1
Atlanta United 3
Charlotte FC 6
Charlotte Independence 0
Richmond Kickers 0
Columbus Crew 3
DC United 3
One Knoxville 4
Westchester SC 2
New York City 5
New York Red Bulls 3
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1
Detroit City 1
Chicago Fire 2
St. Louis City 4
FC Tulsa 0
Louisville City 2
Austin FC 1
Houston Dynamo 4
El Paso Locomotive 1
Colorado Springs 3
Sporting Kansas City 0
Colorado Rapids 1
Union Omaha 0
Sacramento Republic 0
Minnesota United 1
San Jose Earthquakes 2
Phoenix Rising 0
1/8-finals
Orlando City 4
New England Revolution 3
Atlanta United 2
Charlotte FC 0
Columbus Crew 4
One Knoxville 1
New York City 3
New York Red Bulls 1
Chicago Fire 1
St. Louis City 2
Louisville City 1
Houston Dynamo 2
Colorado Springs 2
Colorado Rapids 3
Minnesota United 2
San Jose Earthquakes 4
Quarter-finals
Orlando City 4
Atlanta United 1
Columbus Crew 1
New York City 0
St. Louis City 3
Houston Dynamo 2
Colorado Rapids 2
San Jose Earthquakes 0
Semi-finals
Orlando City 1
Columbus Crew 2
St. Louis City 3
Colorado Rapids 0
Final
Columbus Crew -
St. Louis City -