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Chile vs Uruguay

World World

World Championship 2026 Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Chile play Uruguay in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Chile averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Uruguay averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. In past meetings, Chile won 0, Uruguay won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 9, 2025 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Chile and 1.44 for Uruguay. This points to a Uruguay double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Chile
34%
Draws
38%
Uruguay
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Uruguay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Chile picked up more points recently compared to Uruguay.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Chile Clean Sheet 16%
Uruguay Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 54%
Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chile Uruguay
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 6 13
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.2 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.33 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 World Championship
Chile vs Uruguay
0:0
Sep 8, 2023 World Championship
Uruguay vs Chile
3:1
Mar 29, 2022 World Championship
Chile vs Uruguay
0:2
Jun 21, 2021 Copa América
Uruguay vs Chile
1:1
Oct 8, 2020 World Championship
Uruguay vs Chile
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chile 28 / 100
Uruguay 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chile Uruguay

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Uruguay or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Chile attacking → ← attacking Uruguay

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chile scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Uruguay let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Chile went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Uruguay lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 46
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Argentina18122431:1038
2Ecuador1888214:529
3Colombia1877428:1828
4Uruguay1877422:1228
5Brazil1884624:1728
6Paraguay1877414:1028
7Bolivia18621017:3520
8Venezuela1846818:2818
9Peru1826106:2112
10Chile1825119:2711