Sport Picks

Stadium Background

China U23 vs Japan U23

Asia Asia

AFC Asian Cup U23 Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Jeddah
China U23 Logo

China U23

0 - 4
FT
Japan U23 Logo

Japan U23

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Ozeki Y.
Assist: Furuya S.
20' Event
Ogura K.
45'
Ogura K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-4. This leg finished 0-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
China U23
15%
Draws
46%
Japan U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Japan U23 have won more games recently than China U23.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Japan U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan U23, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Japan U23 have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
China U23 Clean Sheet 68%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric China U23 Japan U23
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 22
Draws 7 3
Losses 6 3
Goals Scored 1.39 2.32
Goals Conceded 0.71 0.68
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 AFC Asian Cup U23
China U23 vs Japan U23
0:4
Apr 16, 2024 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs China U23
1:0
Jul 23, 2017 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs China U23
1:2
Nov 8, 2010 Asian Games
China U23 vs Japan U23
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

China U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Ogura K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ozeki Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

China U23 42 / 100
Japan U23 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
China U23 Japan U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: China U23 remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

China U23 scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Japan U23 has conceded goals in 43% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

China U23 VS Japan U23
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

China U23

(Home)
16 Sept
China U23
2 : 1
North Korea U23
09 Jun
China U23
3 : 0
Tajikistan U23
06 Jun
China U23
1 : 0
Tajikistan U23
31 Mar
China U23
1 : 0
Vietnam U23
28 Mar
China U23
1 : 1
North Korea U23
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Japan U23

(Away)
16 Sept
Japan U23
2 : 0
Hong Kong U23
24 Jan
China U23
0 : 4
Japan U23
20 Jan
Japan U23
1 : 0
South Korea U23
16 Jan
Japan U23
2 : 1
Jordan U23
13 Jan
Japan U23
2 : 0
Qatar U23
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Vietnam U23 3
United Arab Emirates U23 2
Uzbekistan U23 0
China U23 1
Japan U23 2
Jordan U23 1
Australia U23 1
South Korea U23 2
Semi-finals
Vietnam U23 0
China U23 3
Japan U23 1
South Korea U23 0
Final
China U23 0
Japan U23 4
Vietnam U23 3
South Korea U23 2