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Chions vs Castegnato

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Valenta E.
48' Event
Tirelli M.
50' Event
Maspero N.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 game between Chions and Castegnato finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Chions
20%
Draws
16%
Castegnato
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chions

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Castegnato's 1.2 goals per match outpaces what Chions have produced (1.05).
  • Chions are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Chions Clean Sheet 16%
Castegnato Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chions Castegnato
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 7 7
Draws 13 9
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 1.05 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.51 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Chions vs Castegnato
2:2
Dec 3, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Castegnato vs Chions
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chions Compare

Top Goalscorer Valenta E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bolgan I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Castegnato Compare

Top Goalscorer Tirelli M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maspero N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chions 84 / 100
Castegnato 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chions Castegnato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chions Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Castegnato conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Chions scored in 70% of their last 37 outings.

Castegnato's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Chions VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Chions

(Home)
04 May
Chions
2 : 1
Calvi Noale
27 Apr
Brusaporto
3 : 2
Chions
17 Apr
Chions
1 : 2
Brian Lignano
12 Apr
Dolomiti Bellunesi
3 : 1
Chions
06 Apr
Chions
1 : 1
Treviso
Page 1 of 8

Castegnato

(Away)
12 May
Luparense FC
2 : 0
Castegnato
05 May
Adriese
5 : 2
Castegnato
28 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 2
Treviso
21 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 4
Montecchio Maggiore
14 Apr
Chions
2 : 2
Castegnato
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clodiense 34 25 5 4 49:17 80
2 Dolomiti Bellunesi 34 19 9 6 56:25 66
3 Treviso 34 19 3 12 51:37 60
4 Bassano Virtus 34 15 9 10 35:30 54
5 Campodarsego 34 12 15 7 42:26 51
6 Este 34 13 12 9 44:33 51
7 Montecchio Maggiore 34 14 9 11 48:40 51
8 Adriese 34 13 11 10 54:41 50
9 Portogruaro 34 13 9 12 52:43 48
10 Mestre 34 13 9 12 34:37 48
11 Montebelluna 34 11 12 11 35:41 45
12 Chions 34 10 11 13 40:50 41
13 Luparense FC 34 10 9 15 38:41 39
14 Breno 34 8 13 13 39:49 37
15 Cjarlins Muzane 34 7 14 13 30:37 35
16 Castegnato 34 7 12 15 39:58 33
17 Virtus Bolzano 34 4 12 18 25:52 24
18 Mori 34 3 6 25 22:76 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Out)