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Chorley vs Buxton

England England

National League North 2025/2026 Victory Park, Chorley
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Sampson J.
61' Event
Coleman C.
74' Event
Johnston J.

AI Match Summary

The National League North 2025/2026 game between Chorley and Buxton finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Buxton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Chorley
28%
Draws
50%
Buxton
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Buxton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Buxton come out ahead of Chorley on wins alone.
  • Buxton are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular National League North 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Buxton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Chorley Clean Sheet 13%
Buxton Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chorley Buxton
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 15
Draws 7 4
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.5 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 National League North
Chorley vs Buxton
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 National League North
Buxton vs Chorley
3:2
Apr 18, 2025 National League North
Buxton vs Chorley
1:0
Feb 4, 2025 National League North
Chorley vs Buxton
3:0
Apr 6, 2024 National League North
Buxton vs Chorley
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Chorley Compare

Top Goalscorer Sampson J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Buxton Compare

Top Goalscorer Coleman C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Johnston J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chorley 22 / 100
Buxton 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chorley Buxton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BUX Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Buxton let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Attacking prowess: Chorley scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Chorley has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Chorley VS Buxton
0.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Chorley

(Home)
28 Jul
Trafford
2 : 1
Chorley
25 Jul
Chorley
0 : 3
Accrington
21 Jul
Chorley
0 : 0
Altrincham
11 Jul
Chorley
1 : 2
Bury FC
04 Jul
Bamber Bridge
1 : 0
Chorley
Page 1 of 6

Buxton

(Away)
21 Jul
Buxton
2 : 0
Scunthorpe
10 Jul
Buxton
1 : 0
Ashton United
07 Jul
Buxton
1 : 3
Braga
02 May
South Shields
1 : 0
Buxton
28 Apr
Buxton
4 : 2
Scarborough Athletic
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1AFC Fylde4632410112:51100
2South Shields462811799:4395
3Kidderminster462512974:5187
4Macclesfield462471581:6879
5Buxton462271783:6173
6Scarborough Athletic4619161161:5273
7Chester4620131366:6473
8Merthyr Town462242095:8670
9Darlington FC462091778:6869
10Spennymoor4619111662:6968
11Telford4617141585:6565
12Marine461882062:7262
13Radcliffe461862276:8360
14Southport4616121864:7160
15Chorley4615121966:6557
16Worksop461692166:7457
17Oxford City4615112062:6756
18Bedford4613141966:7753
19King’s Lynn4612161856:6452
20Hereford4614102264:7952
21Curzon Ashton4613132067:8852
22Alfreton4612142049:8250
23Peterborough Sports461092751:9639
24Leamington46783141:9029
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