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Stadium Background

Cibao vs Defence Force

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Caribbean Cup 2025 Estadio Cibao FC, Santiago
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Correa R.
Assist: Ventura C.
45' Event
Peralta Y. M.
59' Event
Correa R.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Cibao advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Cibao
15%
Draws
39%
Defence Force
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cibao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Cibao haven't matched Defence Force's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Defence Force arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Defence Force, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Defence Force have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Cibao Clean Sheet 20%
Defence Force Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cibao Defence Force
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 16 19
Draws 9 4
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.39 2.19
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 2, 2025 CONCACAF Caribbean Cup
Cibao vs Defence Force
2:1
Nov 25, 2025 CONCACAF Caribbean Cup
Defence Force vs Cibao
3:0
Oct 2, 2025 CONCACAF Caribbean Cup
Cibao vs Defence Force
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cibao Compare

Top Goalscorer Correa R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Peralta Y. M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Defence Force Compare

Top Goalscorer Ollivierra D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cibao 32 / 100
Defence Force 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cibao Defence Force

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cibao scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Defence Force let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Solid form: Cibao remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cibao VS Defence Force
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cibao

(Home)
13 Sept
Moca
2 : 1
Cibao
10 Sept
Salcedo
1 : 1
Cibao
05 Sept
Cibao
2 : 1
Vega Real
29 Aug
Atlantico FC
1 : 4
Cibao
25 Aug
Cibao
0 : 1
Delfines Del Este
Page 1 of 7

Defence Force

(Away)
15 Sept
Delfines Del Este
3 : 1
Defence Force
01 Sept
Defence Force
0 : 2
Sando
20 Aug
Defence Force
2 : 1
Broki
05 Aug
Violette
3 : 0
Defence Force
29 Mar
Defence Force
2 : 0
AC Port Of Spain
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Universidad O&M 2
Cibao 1
Defence Force 2
Mount Pleasant 5
Final
Universidad O&M 2
Mount Pleasant 3
Cibao 2
Defence Force 4