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Citta di Fasano vs Heraclea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Pinto N.

AI Match Summary

Citta di Fasano in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Citta di Fasano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Citta di Fasano
15%
Draws
34%
Heraclea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Citta di Fasano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Citta di Fasano have won more games recently than Heraclea.
  • Citta di Fasano are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Citta di Fasano Clean Sheet 68%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Citta di Fasano Heraclea
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 7 8
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.55 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Citta di Fasano vs Heraclea
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Citta di Fasano
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Citta di Fasano Compare

Top Goalscorer Pinto N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Heraclea Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Citta di Fasano 95 / 100
Heraclea 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Citta di Fasano Heraclea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Citta di Fasano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Citta di Fasano's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Heraclea conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Difficult form: Heraclea registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Citta di Fasano VS Heraclea
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Citta di Fasano

(Home)
10 May
Citta di Fasano
1 : 2
Paganese
03 May
Citta di Fasano
6 : 0
Paganese
26 Apr
Real Normanna
2 : 0
Citta di Fasano
19 Apr
Citta di Fasano
1 : 0
Martina Calcio
12 Apr
Barletta
3 : 2
Citta di Fasano
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Heraclea

(Away)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)