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Ciudad de Lucena vs Tomares UD

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Galvez R.
(Penalty)
27' Event
Ortiz M.
34' Event
Molina M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 game between Ciudad de Lucena and Tomares UD finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ciudad de Lucena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Ciudad de Lucena
30%
Draws
39%
Tomares UD
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tomares UD

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ciudad de Lucena come out ahead of Tomares UD on wins alone.
  • Model gives Ciudad de Lucena a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ciudad de Lucena here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Ciudad de Lucena Clean Sheet 19%
Tomares UD Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ciudad de Lucena Tomares UD
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 20 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 2.1 1.28
Goals Conceded 0.67 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Ciudad de Lucena vs Tomares UD
5:0
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Tomares UD vs Ciudad de Lucena
0:0
May 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Ciudad de Lucena vs Tomares UD
2:0
May 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Tomares UD vs Ciudad de Lucena
0:1
Feb 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Ciudad de Lucena vs Tomares UD
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ciudad de Lucena Compare

Top Goalscorer Ortiz M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Molina M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Tomares UD Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ciudad de Lucena 42 / 100
Tomares UD 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ciudad de Lucena Tomares UD

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ciudad de Lucena found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Tomares UD has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Ciudad de Lucena stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ciudad de Lucena VS Tomares UD
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Ciudad de Lucena

(Home)
27 Sept
Antoniano
0 : 3
Ciudad de Lucena
20 Sept
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 2
Tenerife B
13 Sept
Mijas Las Lagunas
1 : 1
Ciudad de Lucena
06 Sept
Linares
1 : 1
Ciudad de Lucena
30 Aug
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 0
Mancha
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Tomares UD

(Away)
26 Sept
AD Ceuta B
0 : 1
Tomares UD
20 Sept
Tomares UD
2 : 0
Cordoba B
13 Sept
Linense
2 : 0
Tomares UD
06 Sept
Tomares UD
2 : 2
Cadiz B
04 Aug
Tomares UD
3 : 1
Betis B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ciudad de Lucena 34 22 7 5 69:25 73
2 Dos Hermanas 34 18 6 10 69:39 60
3 Atletico Central 34 15 10 9 36:29 55
4 Bollullos 34 14 11 9 43:35 53
5 AD Ceuta B 34 14 10 10 38:38 52
6 Linense 34 13 13 8 45:32 52
7 Cadiz B 34 14 10 10 50:38 52
8 Conil 34 15 7 12 43:44 52
9 Cordoba B 34 12 8 14 44:44 44
10 CD Utrera 34 12 8 14 40:47 44
11 Pozoblanco 34 10 13 11 39:44 43
12 Chiclana 34 10 13 11 39:45 43
13 San Roque de Lepe 34 10 13 11 39:39 43
14 Atl. Onubense (Huelva B) 34 10 10 14 36:43 40
15 Tomares UD 34 10 9 15 34:46 39
16 Sevilla C 34 10 8 16 34:41 38
17 Castilleja CF 34 6 9 19 28:62 27
18 Coria C.F. 34 4 9 21 24:59 21
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 10 2025/2026 (Play Offs)