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Club Nacional vs Liverpool M. - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Gran Parque Central, Montevideo
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
10:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Club Nacional host Liverpool M. in the Liga AUF Uruguaya. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Liverpool M. have shipped 0.86 goals a game lately, while Club Nacional have conceded 1.16 and scored 1.38. Head-to-head, Club Nacional have won 4 to Liverpool M.'s 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 19, 2026, ending 1:3. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.19) point toward Club Nacional. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Club Nacional
15%
Draws
39%
Liverpool M.
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Club Nacional

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Club Nacional lately — more wins on the board than Liverpool M..
  • Win probability leans Club Nacional's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Club Nacional have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 20%
Liverpool M. Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Club Nacional Liverpool M.
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 17 13
Draws 5 8
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.38 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.16 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Club Nacional
1:3
Sep 20, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Liverpool M.
3:1
Mar 26, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Liverpool M. vs Club Nacional
2:2
Sep 8, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Liverpool M.
1:0
Jun 15, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Liverpool M.
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Club Nacional 67 / 100
Liverpool M. 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Club Nacional Liverpool M.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Club Nacional Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Club Nacional went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Club Nacional found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (32 games).

Liverpool M.'s defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Club Nacional VS Liverpool M.
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Club Nacional

(Home)
15 Oct
Club Nacional
3 : 0
Rentistas
11 Oct
Central Esp.
0 : 1
Club Nacional
05 Oct
Club Nacional
2 : 0
Montevideo City
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2
Club Nacional
20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2
Defensor Sp.
Page 1 of 7

Liverpool M.

(Away)
18 Oct
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Penarol
09 Oct
Maldonado
1 : 1
Liverpool M.
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
27 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 2
Liverpool M.
23 Sept
Liverpool M.
3 : 0
Colon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 11 7 3 1 19:8 24
2 Montevideo City 11 7 1 3 21:12 22
3 Penarol 11 6 3 2 16:8 20
4 Club Nacional 10 6 2 2 14:9 20
5 Maldonado 10 5 3 2 14:6 18
6 CA Cerro 11 5 3 3 13:14 18
7 Juventud 11 4 5 2 12:8 17
8 Progreso 11 5 1 5 12:13 16
9 Racing Montevideo 11 4 3 4 12:10 15
10 Boston River 11 4 3 4 14:13 15
11 Wanderers 11 4 3 4 13:17 15
12 Danubio 11 2 4 5 5:11 10
13 Albion 11 3 0 8 12:19 9
14 Defensor Sp. 11 2 2 7 11:20 8
15 Cerro Largo 11 0 6 5 7:14 6
16 Central Esp. 11 1 2 8 5:18 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)