Sport Picks
Club Nacional vs Progreso
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Gran Parque Central, Montevideo 
Match Events
18'
18'
Ancheta E.
27'
27'
Cristobal R.
29'
29'
Ocampo A.
AI Match Summary
Club Nacional in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Nacional.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
52%
20%
28%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Club Nacional
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Club Nacional have won more games recently than Progreso.
- 52% — that's where the model lands on Club Nacional taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Club Nacional have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 20%
Progreso Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Club Nacional | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 7 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 10 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 16, 2026 Copa Uruguay
Progreso vs Club Nacional
0:1
Aug 23, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Progreso
1:0
Aug 2, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Progreso
2:1
Feb 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Club Nacional
0:1
Jan 22, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Club Nacional vs Progreso
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Club Nacional Compare
Top Goalscorer Gomez M.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Progreso Compare
Top Goalscorer De Leon F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Club Nacional 67 / 100
Progreso 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Club Nacional Progreso
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Club Nacional Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Progreso has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.
Club Nacional has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Attacking prowess: Club Nacional scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Scoring Trends
Club Nacional VS Progreso
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Club Nacional
(Home) 20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1 Club Nacional
12 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1 Club Nacional
06 Sept
Club Nacional
2 : 2 Juventud
03 Sept
River Plate Montevideo
2 : 3 Club Nacional
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Club Nacional
2 : 2 Juventud
27 Aug
Club Nacional
0 : 0 Albion
23 Aug
Club Nacional
1 : 0 Progreso
09 Aug
Club Nacional
1 : 2 Boston River
Page 1 of 3
Progreso
(Away) 19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2 Progreso
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1 Club Nacional
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3 CA Cerro
07 Sept
Albion
0 : 1 Progreso
03 Sept
Albion
2 : 1 Progreso
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2 Progreso
07 Sept
Albion
0 : 1 Progreso
03 Sept
Albion
2 : 1 Progreso
23 Aug
Club Nacional
1 : 0 Progreso
08 Aug
Central Esp.
1 : 0 Progreso
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool M. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sp. | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 3 | Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | 12 |
| 4 | Montevideo City | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:9 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
