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Coastal Union vs Pamba

Tanzania Tanzania

Federation Cup Mkwakwani Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Coastal Union play Pamba in the Federation Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Coastal Union averaged 1.12 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Pamba averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. In past meetings, Coastal Union won 3, Pamba won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 30, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Coastal Union and 1.19 for Pamba. This points to a Coastal Union double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Coastal Union
20%
Draws
36%
Pamba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Coastal Union

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Coastal Union picked up more points recently compared to Pamba.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Coastal Union Clean Sheet 20%
Pamba Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coastal Union Pamba
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 10 8
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.12 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 30, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Coastal Union vs Pamba
2:1
Apr 11, 2026 Federation Cup
Coastal Union vs Pamba
2:0
Feb 6, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Pamba vs Coastal Union
3:0
Feb 15, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Pamba vs Coastal Union
2:0
Sep 28, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Coastal Union vs Pamba
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coastal Union Compare

Top Goalscorer Kiala L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Msangi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Pamba Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coastal Union 44 / 100
Pamba 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coastal Union Pamba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Coastal Union or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Coastal Union attacking → ← attacking Pamba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Coastal Union scored in 64% of their last 33 games.

Pamba let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Coastal Union went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Pamba lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 35
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38