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Colo Colo vs D. Puerto Montt - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Chile Chile

Copa Chile Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Santiago de Chile
Tue, Oct 20, 2026
1 - 0
09:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Correa J.
Assist: Diaz G.
14'
Marchant F.
45'
Riveros M.

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Colo Colo have averaged 2.1 scored and 1 conceded recently, against D. Puerto Montt's 0.89 scored and 1.29 conceded. Past meetings favor Colo Colo slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 6, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.75 vs 0.76, favoring Colo Colo. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Colo Colo
30%
Draws
18%
D. Puerto Montt
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Colo Colo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Colo Colo lately — more wins on the board than D. Puerto Montt.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Colo Colo taking it.
  • Colo Colo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Colo Colo, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Colo Colo Clean Sheet 20%
D. Puerto Montt Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Colo Colo D. Puerto Montt
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 20 10
Draws 5 4
Losses 4 14
Goals Scored 2.1 0.89
Goals Conceded 1 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 Copa Chile
Colo Colo vs D. Puerto Montt
1:0
Sep 29, 2026 Copa Chile
D. Puerto Montt vs Colo Colo
0:1
Oct 8, 2025 Club Friendly
D. Puerto Montt vs Colo Colo
2:1
Jun 14, 2019 Copa Chile
Colo Colo vs D. Puerto Montt
5:2
Jun 9, 2019 Copa Chile
D. Puerto Montt vs Colo Colo
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Colo Colo Compare

Top Goalscorer Correa J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

D. Puerto Montt Compare

Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Colo Colo 85 / 100
D. Puerto Montt 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Colo Colo D. Puerto Montt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Colo Colo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Colo Colo scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Colo Colo went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: D. Puerto Montt conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Scoring Trends

Colo Colo VS D. Puerto Montt
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Colo Colo

(Home)
29 Sept
D. Puerto Montt
0 : 1
Colo Colo
25 Sept
Colo Colo
1 : 0
A. Italiano
22 Sept
A. Italiano
0 : 0
Colo Colo
13 Sept
Colo Colo
1 : 1
D. Concepcion
06 Sept
Huachipato
0 : 0
Colo Colo
Page 1 of 6

D. Puerto Montt

(Away)
03 Oct
Copiapo
3 : 0
D. Puerto Montt
29 Sept
D. Puerto Montt
0 : 1
Colo Colo
26 Sept
Nublense
2 : 1
D. Puerto Montt
22 Sept
D. Puerto Montt
2 : 0
Nublense
13 Sept
Magallanes
2 : 0
D. Puerto Montt
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Colo Colo 1
A. Italiano 0
Nublense 2
D. Puerto Montt 3
Deportes Santa Cruz 2
O Higgins 5
D. Concepcion 6
Curico Unido 0
U. De Chile 2
Everton 1
Antofagasta 5
Deportes Iquique 2
U. Catolica 1
Union La Calera 2
Coquimbo 4
Cobreloa 2
Quarter-finals
Colo Colo 2
D. Puerto Montt 0
O Higgins 3
D. Concepcion 0
U. De Chile 0
Antofagasta 2
Union La Calera -
Coquimbo -
Semi-finals
TBD -
O Higgins -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -