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Comercial MS vs Gremio Maringa

Brazil Brazil

Serie A 1979
Comercial MS Logo

Comercial MS

1 - 0
FT
Gremio Maringa Logo

Gremio Maringa

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie A 1979 game between Comercial MS and Gremio Maringa finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Comercial MS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Comercial MS
30%
Draws
31%
Gremio Maringa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Comercial MS come out ahead of Gremio Maringa on wins alone.
  • Comercial MS are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 10%
Gremio Maringa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial MS Gremio Maringa
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 8 4
Draws 7 7
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 1.29 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.57 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 21, 1979 Serie A Betano
Comercial MS vs Gremio Maringa
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial MS 38 / 100
Gremio Maringa 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial MS Gremio Maringa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Comercial MS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio Maringa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Comercial MS scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Comercial MS has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Comercial MS VS Gremio Maringa
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial MS

(Home)
02 Aug
Comercial MS
2 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
25 Jul
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Misto
18 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Comercial MS
11 Jul
Comercial MS
1 : 1
Uniao ABC
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 6

Gremio Maringa

(Away)
05 Oct
Gremio Maringa
3 : 0
City London
28 Sept
Gremio Maringa
1 : 1
CA Cambe
20 Sept
Associacao Portuguesa Londrinense
3 : 3
Gremio Maringa
13 Sept
CA Cambe
1 : 0
Gremio Maringa
06 Sept
Gremio Maringa
2 : 0
Associacao Portuguesa Londrinense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Coritiba 7 5 1 1 11:3 11
2 Atletico-MG 7 4 2 1 9:5 10
3 Campinense 7 3 2 2 6:4 8
4 Francana 7 3 1 3 7:9 7
5 America RJ 7 2 2 3 14:9 6
6 Brasil de Pelotas 7 2 2 3 8:8 6
7 Colorado PR 7 2 1 4 9:11 5
8 Mixto 7 1 1 5 4:19 3
Promotion - Serie A 1979 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Operario MS 7 5 2 0 16:5 12
2 Sao Bento 7 4 1 2 11:12 9
3 Botafogo RJ 7 3 3 1 9:4 9
4 Joinville 7 3 2 2 8:9 8
5 Figueirense 6 1 4 1 4:4 6
6 Comercial MS 7 2 1 4 4:8 5
7 Gremio Maringa 6 1 1 4 4:9 3
8 ABC 5 0 0 5 3:8 0
Promotion - Serie A 1979 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Internacional 7 4 3 0 10:2 11
2 Athletico-PR 7 4 2 1 6:2 10
3 Desportiva Ferroviaria 7 4 1 2 10:8 9
4 Internacional de Limeira 7 2 4 1 7:4 8
5 Caldense 7 2 3 2 5:6 7
6 SC Sao Paulo 7 1 3 3 4:10 5
7 Anapolina 7 1 2 4 5:10 4
8 Goytacaz 7 1 0 6 3:8 2
Promotion - Serie A 1979 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 7 5 2 0 14:2 12
2 Piracicaba 7 5 0 2 15:8 10
3 Gremio 7 5 0 2 9:5 10
4 Londrina 7 4 1 2 15:8 9
5 Santa Cruz 7 3 1 3 8:10 7
6 Bahia 7 2 0 5 4:11 4
7 Nautico 7 1 1 5 6:13 3
8 Gama 7 0 1 6 4:18 1
Promotion - Serie A 1979 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vasco 7 5 2 0 14:1 12
2 Goias 7 4 3 0 12:3 11
3 America MG 7 2 4 1 6:5 8
4 Ceara 7 2 2 3 9:8 6
5 Várzea Grande EC 7 1 4 2 7:12 6
6 Botafogo PB 7 2 1 4 8:13 5
7 Central SC 7 1 2 4 6:9 4
8 ASA 7 1 2 4 7:18 4
Promotion - Serie A 1979 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria 7 5 0 2 12:7 10
2 Uberlandia 7 4 2 1 8:5 10
3 Fluminense 7 3 4 0 18:6 10
4 Vila Nova FC 7 2 5 0 6:3 9
5 Campo Grande 7 2 2 3 10:7 6
6 XV de Jau 7 2 2 3 8:10 6
7 Maranhao 7 2 0 5 3:15 4
8 Itabaiana 7 0 1 6 4:16 1
Promotion - Serie A 1979 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cruzeiro 7 5 1 1 19:8 11
2 Comercial 7 4 1 2 8:6 9
3 Uberaba 7 3 2 2 7:5 8
4 CSA 7 3 1 3 5:6 7
5 Dom Bosco 7 3 0 4 8:11 6
6 Americano 7 2 2 3 8:11 6
7 Leonico 7 1 3 3 9:9 5
8 Villa Nova AC 7 2 0 5 6:14 4
Promotion - Serie A 1979 (Third stage)