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Comercial vs Tanabi

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Kennedy
59' Event
Silverio P.
83' Event
Mian F.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Comercial and Tanabi finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Comercial.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Comercial
30%
Draws
23%
Tanabi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Comercial

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Comercial haven't matched Tanabi's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Comercial Clean Sheet 29%
Tanabi Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial Tanabi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 5 9
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.1 1.33
Goals Conceded 1 0.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.61
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Paulista A4
Comercial vs Tanabi
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Comercial Compare

Top Goalscorer Silverio P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mian F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Tanabi Compare

Top Goalscorer Kennedy
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.34

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial 38 / 100
Tanabi 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial Tanabi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tanabi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Comercial scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Tanabi's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Defensive concern: Tanabi conceded in 30% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Comercial VS Tanabi
1.63 Goals Scored 0.6
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.2
75% Over 1.5 60%
50% Over 2.5 60%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial

(Home)
19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0
Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0
Sao Jose EC
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
Page 1 of 6

Tanabi

(Away)
04 Apr
Comercial
2 : 1
Tanabi
28 Mar
Tanabi
0 : 0
Colorado Caieiras
25 Mar
Taquaritinga
2 : 1
Tanabi
21 Mar
Inter de Bebedouro
0 : 0
Tanabi
18 Mar
Tanabi
1 : 2
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)