Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Comerciantes Unidos vs FBC Melgar

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Salas J.
Assist: Quagliata N.
56'
Sub
Alcedo F. In: Salinas T.
Out: Alcedo F.
56'
Sub
Rodriguez A. In: Sen M.
Out: Rodriguez A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Comerciantes Unidos
28%
Draws
50%
FBC Melgar
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: FBC Melgar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Comerciantes Unidos haven't matched FBC Melgar's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans FBC Melgar's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Comerciantes Unidos Clean Sheet 18%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comerciantes Unidos FBC Melgar
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 11
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 0.38 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga 1
Comerciantes Unidos vs FBC Melgar
1:1
Sep 27, 2025 Liga 1
Comerciantes Unidos vs FBC Melgar
1:1
May 2, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
1:1
Sep 7, 2024 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
3:0
Mar 2, 2024 Liga 1
Comerciantes Unidos vs FBC Melgar
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Comerciantes Unidos Compare

Top Goalscorer Guzman P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

FBC Melgar Compare

Top Goalscorer Salas J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comerciantes Unidos 23 / 100
FBC Melgar 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comerciantes Unidos FBC Melgar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Comerciantes Unidos scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: FBC Melgar conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Comerciantes Unidos went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Comerciantes Unidos VS FBC Melgar
0.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016