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Comoros vs Mali

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Mohamed V
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Comoros play Mali in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Comoros averaged 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. Mali averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.53 conceded. In past meetings, Comoros won 0, Mali won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Dec 29, 2025 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Comoros and 1.13 for Mali. This points to a Mali double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Comoros
27%
Draws
45%
Mali
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Comoros picked up more points recently compared to Mali.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Comoros Clean Sheet 21%
Mali Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 49%
Second Half Goal 51%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comoros Mali
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 3 11
Losses 16 7
Goals Scored 0.96 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.46 0.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 29, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations
Comoros vs Mali
0:0
Sep 4, 2025 World Championship
Mali vs Comoros
3:0
Mar 20, 2025 World Championship
Comoros vs Mali
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comoros 29 / 100
Mali 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comoros Mali

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mali or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Comoros attacking → ← attacking Mali

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Comoros scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Mali let in goals in 43% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Comoros went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Mali lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 47
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Morocco32106:17
2Mali30302:23
3Comoros30210:22
4Zambia30211:42
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Egypt32103:17
2South Africa32015:46
3Angola30212:32
4Zimbabwe30124:61
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nigeria33008:49
2Tunisia31116:54
3Tanzania30213:42
4Uganda30123:71
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Senegal32107:17
2D.R. Congo32105:17
3Benin31021:43
4Botswana30030:70
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Algeria33007:19
2Burkina Faso32014:26
3Sudan31021:53
4Equatorial Guinea30032:60
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ivory Coast32105:37
2Cameroon32104:27
3Mozambique31024:53
4Gabon30034:70