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Conegliano vs Portogruaro

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Conegliano play Portogruaro in the Serie D - Group C. Conegliano are favorites here. Recently, Conegliano averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. Portogruaro averaged 0.7 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, Conegliano won 1, Portogruaro won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 15, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Conegliano and 0.63 for Portogruaro. This points to a Conegliano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Conegliano
25%
Draws
11%
Portogruaro
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Conegliano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Conegliano picked up more points recently compared to Portogruaro.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 0.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Conegliano Clean Sheet 29%
Portogruaro Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Conegliano Portogruaro
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 1
Draws 10 5
Losses 7 24
Goals Scored 1.13 0.7
Goals Conceded 0.73 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group C
Conegliano vs Portogruaro
2:1
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Portogruaro vs Conegliano
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Conegliano Compare

Top Goalscorer Colombi M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Portogruaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Sognog L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Conegliano 63 / 100
Portogruaro 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Conegliano Portogruaro

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Conegliano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Conegliano & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.6%
1.79
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Conegliano attacking → ← attacking Portogruaro

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Conegliano scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Portogruaro let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Conegliano went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Portogruaro lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 8
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Treviso34216750:2569
2Legnago Salus34187963:4161
3Clodiense34179847:2960
4Este341413740:2955
5Mestre341413737:2955
6Cjarlins Muzane341312941:3951
7Brian Lignano341681058:3450
8Conegliano3413111036:2850
9Bassano Virtus341214837:2750
10Campodarsego341391237:3448
11Altavilla341016828:2446
12Calvi Noale341351638:4044
13Luparense FC3410131136:3943
14Vigasio348141244:4638
15San Luigi348101633:5434
16FC Obermais348101633:4634
17Adriese34562324:6218
18Portogruaro34182525:8111