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Conil vs CD Gerena

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Tercera Division - Group 10 2015/2016
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 10 2015/2016 game between Conil and CD Gerena finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Gerena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Conil
15%
Draws
21%
CD Gerena
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Conil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Conil come out ahead of CD Gerena on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Conil Clean Sheet 20%
CD Gerena Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Conil CD Gerena
Matches Played 42 32
Wins 22 11
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.67 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Conil vs CD Gerena
0:1
Sep 6, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
CD Gerena vs Conil
2:2
Mar 8, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Conil vs CD Gerena
2:1
Oct 26, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
CD Gerena vs Conil
7:0
Mar 30, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
CD Gerena vs Conil
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Conil 31 / 100
CD Gerena 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Conil CD Gerena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Conil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Conil found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (42 games).

CD Gerena has conceded goals in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Conil went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Conil VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Conil

(Home)
10 May
Linense
2 : 0
Conil
03 May
Conil
3 : 2
Atl. Onubense (Huelva B)
26 Apr
Pozoblanco
0 : 1
Conil
19 Apr
Conil
1 : 0
San Roque de Lepe
12 Apr
Castilleja CF
3 : 1
Conil
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CD Gerena

(Away)
14 May
Coria C.F.
4 : 1
CD Gerena
07 May
CD Gerena
0 : 1
CD Alcala
28 Apr
Los Barrios
2 : 1
CD Gerena
23 Apr
CD Gerena
4 : 1
Castilleja CF
08 Apr
Atletico Espeleno
3 : 1
CD Gerena
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cordoba B 40 27 4 9 90:42 85
2 Sanluqueno 40 23 10 7 71:34 79
3 CD San Fernando 40 21 12 7 69:30 75
4 CD Alcala 40 21 10 9 59:33 73
5 CD Gerena 40 16 13 11 65:46 61
6 AD Ceuta 40 14 16 10 47:43 58
7 Arcos CF 40 15 13 12 44:43 58
8 Sevilla C 40 13 16 11 43:44 55
9 Castilleja CF 40 15 10 15 49:54 55
10 Los Barrios 40 16 7 17 54:56 55
11 CD Guadalcacin 40 13 15 12 42:50 54
12 Ecija 40 14 10 16 58:54 52
13 CD Utrera 40 14 10 16 70:76 52
14 San Roque de Cadiz 40 12 14 14 46:52 50
15 Lebrijana 40 13 10 17 45:59 49
16 Cabecense 40 12 13 15 49:57 49
17 Coria C.F. 40 10 18 12 38:39 48
18 CMD San Juan 40 14 6 20 42:53 48
19 Conil 40 10 9 21 41:65 39
20 Rotena 40 9 9 22 43:73 36
21 Ciudad de Lucena 40 2 7 31 19:81 13
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2015/2016 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2015/2016 (Main)