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Stadium Background

Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier Essity Stadium, Flint
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Stone M.
58' Event
Bradley S.
(Penalty)
63'
Gosset D.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier game between Connahs Q. and Caernarfon finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caernarfon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Connahs Q.
15%
Draws
59%
Caernarfon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caernarfon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Very High Confidence
  • Connahs Q. carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Connahs Q. a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Cymru Premier form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Connahs Q. Clean Sheet 19%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Connahs Q. Caernarfon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 13
Draws 8 6
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 1 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Connahs Q.
2:4
Feb 6, 2026 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:1
Jan 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Connahs Q.
2:2
Sep 23, 2025 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Connahs Q. Compare

Top Goalscorer Stone M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Clarke Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Connahs Q. 58 / 100
Caernarfon 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Connahs Q. Caernarfon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Connahs Q. scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Caernarfon let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Connahs Q. has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Connahs Q. VS Caernarfon
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Connahs Q.

(Home)
02 Aug
Connahs Q.
1 : 2
Caernarfon
16 Jul
FC Ballkani
3 : 2
Connahs Q.
08 Jul
Connahs Q.
0 : 0
FC Ballkani
27 Jun
Queen of the South
0 : 1
Connahs Q.
23 Jun
Larne
1 : 0
Connahs Q.
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Caernarfon

(Away)
02 Aug
Connahs Q.
1 : 2
Caernarfon
16 Jul
Levadia
5 : 0
Caernarfon
09 Jul
Caernarfon
0 : 5
Levadia
20 Jun
Glentoran
1 : 2
Caernarfon
18 Apr
Caernarfon
2 : 0
Penybont
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cardiff Metropolitan University 1 1 0 0 6:1 3
2 Colwyn Bay 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
3 Llandudno FC 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
4 Caernarfon 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
5 Briton Ferry 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
6 Barry Town 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
7 Airbus UK Broughton FC 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
8 TNS 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
9 Penybont 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
10 Flint Town 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
11 Connahs Q. 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
12 Cambrian United 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
13 Ammanford Town 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
14 Haverfordwest 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
15 Trefelin 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
16 Holywell Town FC 1 0 0 1 1:6 0
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)