Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier Essity Stadium, Flint
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Stone M.
58' Event
Bradley S.
(Penalty)
63'
Gosset D.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier game between Connahs Q. and Caernarfon finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caernarfon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Connahs Q.
20%
Draws
40%
Caernarfon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Caernarfon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Caernarfon a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Cymru Premier form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Connahs Q. Clean Sheet 13%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Connahs Q. Caernarfon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 15
Draws 8 4
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.83 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Connahs Q.
2:4
Feb 6, 2026 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:1
Jan 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Connahs Q.
2:2
Sep 23, 2025 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Connahs Q. Compare

Top Goalscorer Stone M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Clarke Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Connahs Q. 10 / 100
Caernarfon 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Connahs Q. Caernarfon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Connahs Q. scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Caernarfon let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Connahs Q. has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Connahs Q. VS Caernarfon
2.63 Goals Scored 2.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Connahs Q.

(Home)
18 Sept
Connahs Q.
1 : 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University
15 Sept
Connahs Q.
3 : 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC
12 Sept
Colwyn Bay
2 : 1
Connahs Q.
04 Sept
Connahs Q.
1 : 1
Haverfordwest
31 Aug
Flint Town
1 : 2
Connahs Q.
Page 1 of 6

Caernarfon

(Away)
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1
Cambrian United
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1
Caernarfon
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5
Caernarfon
04 Sept
Caernarfon
3 : 0
Flint Town
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3
TNS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 10 9 1 0 26:4 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 20:8 24
3 Caernarfon 10 7 1 2 33:11 22
4 Connahs Q. 10 7 1 2 23:7 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 25:16 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 20:14 19
7 Llandudno FC 10 5 1 4 18:14 16
8 Airbus UK Broughton FC 10 5 0 5 17:15 15
9 Cambrian United 10 4 3 3 17:20 15
10 Cardiff Metropolitan University 9 4 2 3 19:11 14
11 Haverfordwest 9 3 1 5 7:14 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 9:19 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 4:24 3
14 Ammanford Town 10 0 3 7 7:28 3
15 Flint Town 10 0 2 8 8:24 2
16 Holywell Town FC 10 0 1 9 11:35 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)