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FC Moravia vs Carmelita

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Mora R.
52' Event
Mora R.
65' Event
Drummond T.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 game between FC Moravia and Carmelita finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Moravia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
FC Moravia
33%
Draws
27%
Carmelita
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: FC Moravia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FC Moravia come out ahead of Carmelita on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans FC Moravia's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
FC Moravia Clean Sheet 68%
Carmelita Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Moravia Carmelita
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 9 5
Draws 9 10
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs FC Moravia
1:1
Feb 19, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
FC Moravia vs Carmelita
3:1
Oct 31, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
FC Moravia vs Carmelita
0:1
Sep 12, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs FC Moravia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Moravia Compare

Top Goalscorer Mora R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Drummond T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Carmelita Compare

Top Goalscorer Forbes J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Moravia 50 / 100
Carmelita 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Moravia Carmelita

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Moravia's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Carmelita let in goals in 74% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

FC Moravia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Moravia VS Carmelita
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Moravia

(Home)
26 Apr
ADR Jicaral
2 : 0
FC Moravia
21 Apr
FC Moravia
1 : 1
ADR Jicaral
12 Apr
FC Moravia
3 : 2
Pitbulls
05 Apr
Cariari Pococi
0 : 1
FC Moravia
30 Mar
FC Moravia
0 : 1
Escorpiones
Page 1 of 6

Carmelita

(Away)
31 Mar
Aserri
0 : 0
Carmelita
25 Mar
Carmelita
1 : 1
FC Moravia
21 Mar
CS Uruguay
3 : 0
Carmelita
16 Mar
Carmelita
1 : 0
Pitbulls
12 Mar
Cariari Pococi
2 : 1
Carmelita
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1ADR Jicaral1493225:1230
2Inter San Carlos1484225:1428
3Quepos FC1491430:2128
4Santa Cruz1445519:1717
5Grecia1445516:1817
6AD Sarchi1445519:2317
7Cofutpa1424814:2710
8Dep. Upala1405915:315
9Municipal Turrialba00000:00
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Escorpiones14102233:1032
2CS Uruguay1472525:2023
3Pitbulls1464420:1622
4FC Moravia1454519:1919
5Cariari Pococi1436519:2315
6Aserri1428415:2814
7Santa Ana1333719:2812
8Carmelita1325610:1611
9Limon Black Star00000:00
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)