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Cook Islands vs American Samoa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Settle M.
44' Event
Mitchell A.
Assist: Lauvao P.
46'
Sub
Taumua G. In: Tua V.
Out: Taumua G.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2024 game between Cook Islands and American Samoa finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward American Samoa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Cook Islands
15%
Draws
28%
American Samoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cook Islands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cook Islands come out ahead of American Samoa on wins alone.
  • Model gives Cook Islands a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and American Samoa have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Cook Islands Clean Sheet 16%
American Samoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cook Islands American Samoa
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 7 4
Draws 2 2
Losses 18 24
Goals Scored 0.93 0.63
Goals Conceded 2.37 6.73
Expected Goals (xG) 2.94 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2024 Friendly International
Cook Islands vs American Samoa
1:2
Sep 4, 2015 World Championship
American Samoa vs Cook Islands
2:0
Nov 25, 2011 World Championship
American Samoa vs Cook Islands
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cook Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaufononga S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.26
Avg xA / game 1.47

American Samoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Mitchell A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stefanon B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cook Islands 84 / 100
American Samoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cook Islands American Samoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cook Islands Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

American Samoa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Away concern: American Samoa has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Cook Islands's goal record stands at 56% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Cook Islands VS American Samoa
0.25 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 5.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Cook Islands

(Home)
01 Oct
Cook Islands
3 : 2
Tahiti
27 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tahiti
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
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American Samoa

(Away)
28 Mar
American Samoa
0 : 6
Guam
25 Mar
United States Virgin Islands
5 : 2
American Samoa
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
29 Nov
American Samoa
2 : 6
Tonga
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