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Cook Islands vs Tonga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Teufaiva Sport Stadium, Nukuʻalofa
Cook Islands Logo

Cook Islands

1 - 0
FT
Tonga Logo

Tonga

Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Sub
Papani K. In: Feke L. P. H. L.
Out: Papani K.
38' Event
Saghabi T.
45'
Tu'amoheloa T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Cook Islands
15%
Draws
28%
Tonga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cook Islands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cook Islands lately — more wins on the board than Tonga.
  • Model gives Cook Islands a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Cook Islands have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Cook Islands, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Cook Islands Clean Sheet 15%
Tonga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cook Islands Tonga
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 2 2
Losses 18 23
Goals Scored 0.93 1.03
Goals Conceded 2.37 3.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2024 World Championship
Cook Islands vs Tonga
1:3
Mar 26, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Cook Islands vs Tonga
1:0
Nov 21, 2023 Pacific Games
Cook Islands vs Tonga
2:1
Mar 13, 2022 World Championship
Tonga vs Cook Islands
0:0
Aug 31, 2015 World Championship
Tonga vs Cook Islands
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cook Islands Compare

Top Goalscorer Saghabi T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tonga Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cook Islands 35 / 100
Tonga 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cook Islands Tonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tonga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Tonga has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Cook Islands scored in 56% of their last 27 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cook Islands VS Tonga
0.25 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 3
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Cook Islands

(Home)
01 Oct
Cook Islands
3 : 2
Tahiti
27 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tahiti
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
Page 1 of 6

Tonga

(Away)
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
31 Aug
Ba
4 : 0
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
20 Mar
Tonga
1 : 4
Samoa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Samoa 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
2 Cook Islands 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
3 Tonga 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
Promotion - OFC Nations Cup (Main)