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Stadium Background

Corinthians vs Capivariano

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Sub
Kaio Cesar In: da Cruz Lopes D.
Out: Kaio Cesar
23'
Guilherme Nogueira
40'
Sub
Hugo In: Matheus Bidu
Out: Hugo

AI Match Summary

Corinthians in this Paulista matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Corinthians.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Corinthians
15%
Draws
73%
Capivariano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capivariano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

12% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Capivariano lately — more wins on the board than Corinthians.
  • 12% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Paulista form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Corinthians have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Corinthians Clean Sheet 68%
Capivariano Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corinthians Capivariano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.2 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.07 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2026 Paulista
Corinthians vs Capivariano
3:0
Feb 11, 2016 Paulista
Corinthians vs Capivariano
2:1
Mar 22, 2015 Paulista
Capivariano vs Corinthians
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corinthians Compare

Top Goalscorer da Cruz Lopes D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gui Negao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Capivariano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corinthians 41 / 100
Capivariano 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corinthians Capivariano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corinthians Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Corinthians scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Capivariano has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Capivariano conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Corinthians VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Corinthians

(Home)
20 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 3
Fluminense
17 Sept
Corinthians
0 : 1
Estudiantes L.P.
13 Sept
Flamengo RJ
2 : 1
Corinthians
10 Sept
Estudiantes L.P.
1 : 1
Corinthians
06 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
Page 1 of 6

Capivariano

(Away)
21 Feb
Palmeiras
4 : 0
Capivariano
15 Feb
Botafogo SP
0 : 1
Capivariano
08 Feb
Capivariano
1 : 0
Mirassol
05 Feb
Corinthians
3 : 0
Capivariano
25 Jan
Capivariano
1 : 2
Primavera EC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Novorizontino 8 5 1 2 16:10 16
2 Palmeiras 8 5 1 2 8:7 16
3 Bragantino 8 4 4 0 14:2 16
4 Portuguesa 8 5 0 3 11:7 15
5 Corinthians 8 4 2 2 10:6 14
6 Sao Paulo 8 4 1 3 11:12 13
7 Capivariano 8 4 1 3 7:10 13
8 Santos 8 3 3 2 12:7 12
9 Guarani 8 3 3 2 6:7 12
10 Botafogo SP 8 3 2 3 5:9 11
11 Mirassol 8 2 2 4 10:8 8
12 Primavera EC 8 2 2 4 14:15 8
13 Sao Bernardo 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
14 Noroeste 8 1 5 2 11:11 8
15 Velo Clube 8 1 2 5 2:13 5
16 Ponte Preta 8 0 1 7 3:14 1
Promotion - Paulista (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A2 2027 (Main)