Sport Picks

South America

Copa Libertadores Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo

Corinthians

2 - 0

Penarol

Our Tip

Match Events

11'

Gustavo Henrique

Assist: Garro R.

25'

Lingard J.

Assist: Yuri Alberto

57'

Sub

Togni G. In: Angulo L.

Out: Togni G.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Corinthians in this Copa Libertadores tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Corinthians

20%

Draws

38%

Penarol

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Corinthians

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Penarol have won more games recently than Corinthians.
Win probability leans Corinthians's way, sitting at 42%.
Penarol arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Penarol, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%

Corinthians Clean Sheet 68%

Penarol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Corinthians	Penarol
Matches Played	26	29
Wins	10	13
Draws	9	7
Losses	7	9
Goals Scored	1	1.25
Goals Conceded	1	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Penarol vs Corinthians

1:1

May 1, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Corinthians vs Penarol

2:0

May 14, 2021 Copa Sudamericana

Penarol vs Corinthians

4:0

Apr 29, 2021 Copa Sudamericana

Corinthians vs Penarol

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corinthians Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Henrique

1 Goals

Assists Leader Lingard J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Penarol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corinthians 51 / 100

Penarol 48 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Corinthians Penarol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Corinthians found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (26 games).

Penarol has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Corinthians has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Corinthians VS Penarol

1 Goals Scored 1.25

1 Goals Conceded 0.88

63% Over 1.5 63%

25% Over 2.5 25%

25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Corinthians

(Home)

12 Jul

FC Cascavel

1 : 1

Corinthians

30 May

Gremio

1 : 3

Corinthians

28 May

Corinthians

0 : 2

Platense

24 May

Corinthians

1 : 0

Atletico-MG

22 May

Penarol

1 : 1

Corinthians

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Penarol

(Away)

18 Jul

Penarol

3 : 0

Boston River

12 Jul

Racing Montevideo

1 : 1

Penarol

07 Jun

CA Cerro

0 : 1

Penarol

01 Jun

Penarol

0 : 1

Central Esp.

28 May

Penarol

0 : 1

Santa Fe

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