Sport Picks

South America

Copa Libertadores Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo

Corinthians

2 - 0

Penarol

Our Tip

Match Events

11'

Gustavo Henrique

Assist: Garro R.

25'

Lingard J.

Assist: Yuri Alberto

57'

Sub

Togni G. In: Angulo L.

Out: Togni G.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Corinthians

20%

Draws

73%

Penarol

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence

Penarol have won more games recently than Corinthians.
Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 90%.
Penarol arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Penarol, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%

Corinthians Clean Sheet 17%

Penarol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Corinthians	Penarol
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	12	13
Draws	7	8
Losses	10	8
Goals Scored	1.14	1.52
Goals Conceded	0.97	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	0.81	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Penarol vs Corinthians

1:1

May 1, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Corinthians vs Penarol

2:0

May 14, 2021 Copa Sudamericana

Penarol vs Corinthians

4:0

Apr 29, 2021 Copa Sudamericana

Corinthians vs Penarol

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corinthians Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Henrique

1 Goals

Assists Leader Lingard J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.62

Avg xA / game 0.41

Penarol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corinthians 10 / 100

Penarol 95 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Corinthians Penarol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Corinthians found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Penarol has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Corinthians has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Corinthians VS Penarol

0.88 Goals Scored 1.75

1 Goals Conceded 0.75

63% Over 1.5 63%

38% Over 2.5 63%

0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Corinthians

(Home)

17 Sept

Corinthians

0 : 1

Estudiantes L.P.

13 Sept

Flamengo RJ

2 : 1

Corinthians

10 Sept

Estudiantes L.P.

1 : 1

Corinthians

06 Sept

Corinthians

1 : 2

Chapecoense-SC

30 Aug

Corinthians

0 : 1

Santos

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Penarol

(Away)

19 Sept

CA Cerro

1 : 2

Penarol

13 Sept

Penarol

3 : 1

Albion

05 Sept

Danubio

0 : 4

Penarol

02 Sept

Atenas

2 : 2

Penarol

30 Aug

Penarol

0 : 1

Club Nacional

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