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Correggese vs Pavia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Siligardi L.
40' Event
Siligardi L.
49' Event
Cavallotti N.

AI Match Summary

Correggese in this Serie D - Group D matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Correggese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Correggese
35%
Draws
24%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Correggese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Correggese average 1 goals a game right now, well clear of Pavia's 0.89.
  • Model gives Correggese a 41% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Correggese Clean Sheet 68%
Pavia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Correggese Pavia
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 9
Draws 7 9
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1 0.89
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Correggese vs Pavia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Correggese Compare

Top Goalscorer Siligardi L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Cavallotti N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Correggese 50 / 100
Pavia 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Correggese Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Correggese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Correggese scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Correggese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Pavia conceded in 54% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Correggese VS Pavia
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Correggese

(Home)
04 Oct
Correggese
2 : 1
Pavia
27 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 1
Correggese
20 Sept
Correggese
1 : 3
USD Casatese
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
12 Sept
Arconatese
1 : 1
Correggese
Page 1 of 6

Pavia

(Away)
04 Oct
Correggese
2 : 1
Pavia
27 Sept
Pavia
1 : 1
Arconatese
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
12 Sept
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Pavia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)