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Corticella vs Aglianese Calcio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Marino R.
41' Event
Trombetta M.
(Penalty)
57'
Bertani R.

AI Match Summary

Aglianese Calcio in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aglianese Calcio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Corticella
20%
Draws
40%
Aglianese Calcio
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aglianese Calcio lately — more wins on the board than Corticella.
  • Aglianese Calcio are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Corticella Clean Sheet 20%
Aglianese Calcio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corticella Aglianese Calcio
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.78 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Aglianese Calcio
1:2
Oct 22, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Corticella
1:0
Jan 15, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Aglianese Calcio
2:1
Sep 11, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Aglianese Calcio vs Corticella
4:2
Mar 21, 2021 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Aglianese Calcio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corticella Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Aglianese Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Marino R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mascari A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corticella 20 / 100
Aglianese Calcio 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corticella Aglianese Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aglianese Calcio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Aglianese Calcio registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Corticella found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (32 games).

Aglianese Calcio has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Corticella VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Corticella

(Home)
18 May
Corticella
0 : 2
Sammaurese
11 May
Corticella
4 : 1
Sasso Marconi
27 Apr
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Corticella
17 Apr
Corticella
0 : 3
Prato
13 Apr
Tuttocuoio
1 : 1
Corticella
Page 1 of 7

Aglianese Calcio

(Away)
05 May
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 4
Forli FC
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
0 : 1
SCD Progresso
14 Apr
Mezzolara
0 : 0
Aglianese Calcio
07 Apr
Aglianese Calcio
3 : 0
Sammaurese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)