Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group D 2024/2025

Corticella

2 - 1

Fiorenzuola

Our Tip

Match Events

Rizzi M.

63'

Oboe M.

75'

Manara N.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2024/2025 game between Corticella and Fiorenzuola finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Corticella.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Corticella

Draws

90%

Fiorenzuola

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Fiorenzuola

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Corticella come out ahead of Fiorenzuola on wins alone.
Model gives Fiorenzuola a 90% chance of winning this.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%

Corticella Clean Sheet 16%

Fiorenzuola Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Corticella	Fiorenzuola
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	9	6
Draws	5	4
Losses	16	20
Goals Scored	0.75	0.5
Goals Conceded	2.38	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.38	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group D

Corticella vs Fiorenzuola

Possession: 55% - 53% Cards: 2 - 0

2:1

Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group D

Fiorenzuola vs Corticella

Possession: 53% - 52% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Apr 1, 2021 Serie D - Group D

Fiorenzuola vs Corticella

Possession: 40% - 57% Cards: 4 - 0

4:0

Dec 13, 2020 Serie D - Group D

Corticella vs Fiorenzuola

Possession: 47% - 54% Cards: 4 - 3

1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corticella Compare

Top Goalscorer Rizzi M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Manara N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Fiorenzuola Compare

Top Goalscorer Oboe M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corticella 10 / 100

Fiorenzuola 95 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Corticella Fiorenzuola

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FIO Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Fiorenzuola conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Corticella found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Corticella went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Corticella VS Fiorenzuola

0.75 Goals Scored 0.5

2.38 Goals Conceded 1.75

75% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Forli FC	34	27	3	4	75:24	84
2	Ravenna	34	23	5	6	65:27	74
3	Lentigione	34	18	11	5	48:27	65
4	Tau	34	18	9	7	54:27	63
5	Pistoiese	34	18	7	9	45:23	61
6	Imolese	34	14	11	9	52:44	53
7	Cittadella Vis Modena	34	13	8	13	48:40	47
8	Piacenza	34	10	12	12	38:40	42
9	Prato	34	11	9	14	34:38	42
10	Tuttocuoio	34	10	12	12	32:43	42
11	SCD Progresso	34	10	11	13	24:32	41
12	San Marino Calcio	34	10	8	16	38:51	38
13	Sasso Marconi	34	9	10	15	39:51	37
14	Corticella	34	10	6	18	37:65	36
15	Sammaurese	34	7	10	17	27:37	31
16	Fiorenzuola	34	7	5	22	21:46	26
17	Zenith Prato	34	10	8	16	36:51	23
18	United Riccione	34	5	7	22	22:69	22